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GEN:NASDAQGen Digital Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time

$20.68

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Gen Digital is trading at $20.68, essentially hugging its 30‑day support of $20.61, while the 20‑day SMA (22.26) sits below the 50‑day SMA (24.01), signaling a short‑term downtrend. Technical indicators are mixed: the RSI of 29 points to oversold conditions, yet the MACD histogram remains negative and the overall trend is bearish, with volume trending downward. Volatility is elevated at 42% over the past month, and the stock has endured a max drawdown of about 35%, underscoring heightened price swings. On the fundamental side, the company posted a 26% YoY revenue surge to $1.24 B in Q3 FY2026, beating consensus, and bookings rose 27% driven by AI‑enabled safety solutions. Operating margin stands at 36%, gross margin at 79%, and free cash flow exceeds $1.3 B, supporting a dividend yield of 2.38% with a payout ratio just above 50%. However, the balance sheet is leveraged, reflected by a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 363% and total debt of $8.47 B. The DCF‑derived fair value of $66.84 suggests roughly a 50% upside potential, while the forward PE of 7.2 indicates cheap valuation relative to earnings growth. Analyst consensus remains positive (Buy) with a median target near $32, implying a further upside of about 55% from current levels.
In summary, Gen Digital combines strong top‑line momentum and attractive valuation metrics, but it faces near‑term technical weakness and a high‑debt profile that could limit upside if market sentiment remains bearish. The recent earnings beat and AI‑driven product rollout provide a catalyst for medium‑term recovery, while the dividend and cash generation lend some defensive qualities. Investors should weigh the upside from undervaluation against the risks of volatility, leverage, and a still‑bearish price action pattern.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near strong support and oversold RSI
  • Bearish MACD and decreasing volume
  • Recent earnings beat but technical momentum remains weak

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust 26% revenue growth and 27% bookings increase
  • Forward PE of 7.2 indicating cheap earnings valuation
  • AI‑driven product pipeline expanding paid customer base

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value implying ~50% upside
  • Strong cash flow generation supporting dividend sustainability
  • High leverage requiring monitoring but offset by operating profitability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth25.80%
Profit Margin12.76%
P/E Ratio21.3
ROE26.90%
ROA7.17%
Debt/Equity363.38
P/B Ratio5.4
Op. Cash Flow$1.5B
Free Cash Flow$1.3B
Industry P/E33.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI29.3
Support$20.61
Resistance$23.97
MA 20$22.26
MA 50$24.01
MA 200$27.40
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value$66.84
Target Price$31.19
Upside/Downside50.81%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.38%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.97
Volatility42.22%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.