We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

KTOS:NASDAQKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-13 - not real-time

$46.86

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

KTOS is trading well below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages (price ~$46 vs SMAs in the $51‑$78 range), with a bearish MACD crossover and an RSI in the mid‑30s, indicating weak short‑term momentum and proximity to a key support near $46. At the same time, the stock carries an extremely high trailing P/E relative to the aerospace & defense industry average, a forward P/E still above 40, and negative operating and free cash flow, all of which point to a significant valuation gap and cash‑generation concern.
On the upside, the company announced a major expansion of its Spartan turbojet engine production and a sizable $36 million air‑defense contract, while analysts collectively rate the stock as a “strong buy” with a median price target around $110, suggesting that the market may be under‑pricing the long‑run upside from defense spending tailwinds and the new manufacturing capacity.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering at technical support with bearish momentum signals
  • Volume trend is decreasing, limiting upside potential in the near term
  • Recent production expansion news could provide a catalyst if earnings improve

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Scaling of Spartan engine capacity aligns with rising defense demand
  • Analyst consensus is strongly positive with a median target ~110
  • Structural tailwinds from U.S. defense budget increases and contract wins

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑run exposure to high‑growth unmanned systems and hypersonic markets
  • Potential for improved cash generation as new facilities reach full utilization
  • Defense sector resilience despite valuation premium

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth22.60%
Profit Margin2.08%
P/E Ratio275.6
ROE1.23%
ROA0.57%
Debt/Equity5.44
P/B Ratio2.6
Op. Cash Flow$-40300000
Free Cash Flow$-106725000
Industry P/E30.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI37.2
Support$46.01
Resistance$61.70
MA 20$51.41
MA 50$55.54
MA 200$78.38
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.21

Valuation

Target Price$109.86
Upside/Downside134.44%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta2.16
Volatility65.24%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.