KTOS:NASDAQKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-13 - not real-time
$46.86
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
KTOS is trading well below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages (price ~$46 vs SMAs in the $51‑$78 range), with a bearish MACD crossover and an RSI in the mid‑30s, indicating weak short‑term momentum and proximity to a key support near $46. At the same time, the stock carries an extremely high trailing P/E relative to the aerospace & defense industry average, a forward P/E still above 40, and negative operating and free cash flow, all of which point to a significant valuation gap and cash‑generation concern.
On the upside, the company announced a major expansion of its Spartan turbojet engine production and a sizable $36 million air‑defense contract, while analysts collectively rate the stock as a “strong buy” with a median price target around $110, suggesting that the market may be under‑pricing the long‑run upside from defense spending tailwinds and the new manufacturing capacity.
On the upside, the company announced a major expansion of its Spartan turbojet engine production and a sizable $36 million air‑defense contract, while analysts collectively rate the stock as a “strong buy” with a median price target around $110, suggesting that the market may be under‑pricing the long‑run upside from defense spending tailwinds and the new manufacturing capacity.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering at technical support with bearish momentum signals
- Volume trend is decreasing, limiting upside potential in the near term
- Recent production expansion news could provide a catalyst if earnings improve
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Scaling of Spartan engine capacity aligns with rising defense demand
- Analyst consensus is strongly positive with a median target ~110
- Structural tailwinds from U.S. defense budget increases and contract wins
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Long‑run exposure to high‑growth unmanned systems and hypersonic markets
- Potential for improved cash generation as new facilities reach full utilization
- Defense sector resilience despite valuation premium
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth22.60%
Profit Margin2.08%
P/E Ratio275.6
ROE1.23%
ROA0.57%
Debt/Equity5.44
P/B Ratio2.6
Op. Cash Flow$-40300000
Free Cash Flow$-106725000
Industry P/E30.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI37.2
Support$46.01
Resistance$61.70
MA 20$51.41
MA 50$55.54
MA 200$78.38
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.21
Valuation
Target Price$109.86
Upside/Downside134.44%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta2.16
Volatility65.24%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.