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KDP:NASDAQKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$28.19

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Keurig Dr Pepper is trading at $28.19, just above the identified support of $27.48 but below its 20‑day SMA of $29.40, signaling short‑term price pressure while the 50‑day SMA ($28.40) offers a modest near‑term ceiling. The RSI of 42 and a bearish MACD histogram suggest momentum is still tentative, yet volume is on the rise and the 30‑day volatility of 28.6% reflects active trading. On the fundamentals side, revenue grew 10.5% year‑over‑year, margins remain solid (gross 54%, operating 22.6%, profit 12.5%), and the forward EPS of $2.51 translates to a forward P/E of 11, well below the historical trailing P/E of 18.4. The company posted an earnings beat ($0.60 vs $0.59 consensus) and announced a $0.23 dividend, maintaining a 3.26% yield with a 60% payout ratio backed by $1.13 B of free cash flow. Strategic moves such as the $18 B JDE Peet’s acquisition and the ongoing split into two publicly traded entities are expected to unlock further growth, while the DCF model implies roughly 26% upside to fair value. Overall, the stock appears undervalued, offers a resilient dividend, and benefits from both defensive consumer exposure and growth catalysts.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just above support with bearish MACD
  • Recent earnings beat and dividend payout
  • Increasing volume despite neutral trend

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Estimated 26% upside to DCF fair value
  • Forward P/E of 11 indicating attractive valuation
  • Growth from JDE Peet’s acquisition and split plan

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable 3.26% dividend yield with strong cash flow
  • Defensive consumer‑staples positioning
  • Long‑term revenue growth and margin stability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth10.50%
Profit Margin12.52%
P/E Ratio18.4
ROE8.36%
ROA4.26%
Debt/Equity75.38
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow$2.0B
Free Cash Flow$1.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI42.2
Support$27.48
Resistance$31.50
MA 20$29.40
MA 50$28.40
MA 200$29.68
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.36

Valuation

Fair Value$4.60
Target Price$35.57
Upside/Downside26.18%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.26%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.21
Volatility28.55%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.