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JCI:NYSEJohnson Controls International plc Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time

$135.42

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Johnson Controls trades around $135.42, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $141.97 and 50‑day SMA of $137.94, indicating a short‑term pullback despite a bullish 200‑day trend. Technical signals such as an RSI of 40 and a bearish MACD histogram suggest limited upside in the near term, while the price sits near a support level of $133.61. Fundamentally, the company delivers 8.2% revenue growth, a solid free cash flow generation of $2.87 B, and a dividend yield of 1.18% with a 48% payout ratio, but its current P/E of 41.5x versus an industry average of 29.2x and a DCF fair value of $71.74 signal significant overvaluation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term moving averages
  • Bearish MACD histogram
  • Proximity to support level

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained revenue growth and strong cash flow
  • Attractive dividend yield with reasonable payout
  • Positive forward EPS outlook

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Global footprint reducing geographic concentration risk
  • Growing demand for energy‑efficient building solutions
  • Robust operating margins and ROE around 13%

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.20%
Profit Margin14.45%
P/E Ratio41.5
ROE13.45%
ROA5.45%
Debt/Equity70.32
P/B Ratio6.1
Op. Cash Flow$1.7B
Free Cash Flow$2.9B
Industry P/E29.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI40.2
Support$133.61
Resistance$147.32
MA 20$141.97
MA 50$137.94
MA 200$121.91
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.18

Valuation

Fair Value$71.74
Target Price$151.19
Upside/Downside11.65%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.18%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.97
Volatility28.66%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.