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IX:NYSEORIX Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

$38.66

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The stock trades at $38.66, comfortably above its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, indicating a sustained bullish trend. Relative Strength Index sits in the mid‑50s, supporting the upside bias, while volume is on an upward trajectory. The MACD histogram has turned negative, hinting at a short‑term pull‑back, and the 30‑day volatility is elevated, reflecting a high‑risk environment. Market sentiment is at an "Extreme Greed" level on the Fear & Greed Index.
Fundamental and news catalyst: ORIX reported a record net income for FY2026 with earnings accelerating over 27% YoY and revenue growth near 28%, reinforcing its growth narrative. Forward earnings are projected to rise sharply, driving the forward P/E to a very low multiple relative to the industry. The company maintains a dividend yield of 2.55% with a modest payout ratio, and management has set an aggressive profit target for the coming year. While leverage is high, the diversified global franchise and strong cash‑flow generation from operating activities underpin the balance sheet.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price positioned near technical support with bullish SMA alignment
  • MACD bearish divergence suggests limited upside in the near term
  • High short‑term volatility and elevated market greed

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong earnings acceleration and record net income
  • Forward P/E dramatically below industry average
  • Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified global business model reduces concentration risk
  • High leverage and negative free cash flow warrant caution
  • Consistent dividend policy and continued growth guidance

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth28.00%
Profit Margin13.43%
P/E Ratio15.5
ROE10.42%
ROA2.40%
Debt/Equity141.40
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow$1369.6B
Free Cash Flow$-1643793743872
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI57.6
Support$36.36
Resistance$40.00
MA 20$38.56
MA 50$34.93
MA 200$30.22
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.07

Valuation

Fair Value$26,687.76
Target Price$38.87
Upside/Downside0.55%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.55%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.01
Volatility39.12%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.