IX:NYSEORIX Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time
$38.66
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock trades at $38.66, comfortably above its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, indicating a sustained bullish trend. Relative Strength Index sits in the mid‑50s, supporting the upside bias, while volume is on an upward trajectory. The MACD histogram has turned negative, hinting at a short‑term pull‑back, and the 30‑day volatility is elevated, reflecting a high‑risk environment. Market sentiment is at an "Extreme Greed" level on the Fear & Greed Index.
Fundamental and news catalyst: ORIX reported a record net income for FY2026 with earnings accelerating over 27% YoY and revenue growth near 28%, reinforcing its growth narrative. Forward earnings are projected to rise sharply, driving the forward P/E to a very low multiple relative to the industry. The company maintains a dividend yield of 2.55% with a modest payout ratio, and management has set an aggressive profit target for the coming year. While leverage is high, the diversified global franchise and strong cash‑flow generation from operating activities underpin the balance sheet.
Fundamental and news catalyst: ORIX reported a record net income for FY2026 with earnings accelerating over 27% YoY and revenue growth near 28%, reinforcing its growth narrative. Forward earnings are projected to rise sharply, driving the forward P/E to a very low multiple relative to the industry. The company maintains a dividend yield of 2.55% with a modest payout ratio, and management has set an aggressive profit target for the coming year. While leverage is high, the diversified global franchise and strong cash‑flow generation from operating activities underpin the balance sheet.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price positioned near technical support with bullish SMA alignment
- MACD bearish divergence suggests limited upside in the near term
- High short‑term volatility and elevated market greed
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong earnings acceleration and record net income
- Forward P/E dramatically below industry average
- Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Diversified global business model reduces concentration risk
- High leverage and negative free cash flow warrant caution
- Consistent dividend policy and continued growth guidance
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth28.00%
Profit Margin13.43%
P/E Ratio15.5
ROE10.42%
ROA2.40%
Debt/Equity141.40
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow$1369.6B
Free Cash Flow$-1643793743872
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI57.6
Support$36.36
Resistance$40.00
MA 20$38.56
MA 50$34.93
MA 200$30.22
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.07
Valuation
Fair Value$26,687.76
Target Price$38.87
Upside/Downside0.55%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.55%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.01
Volatility39.12%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.