IVN:TSXIvanhoe Mines Ltd. Class A Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time
CA$12.44
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) is trading at CAD 12.44, well below its 20‑day (CAD 14.69) and 50‑day (CAD 16.06) simple moving averages, indicating a short‑term downtrend, while the RSI of 30.8 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory. The bearish MACD (line -0.96 vs signal -0.74) and decreasing volume reinforce the technical weakness, yet the price sits just above the computed support at CAD 12.38, offering a potential floor for a near‑term bounce.
Fundamentally, the company reported a $228 M profit and $578 M adjusted EBITDA for 2025, with the Kamoa‑Kakula complex delivering a 44% margin on CAD 3.28 B revenue, underscoring strong operating performance. However, the balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity of 22.1, negative operating cash flow, and a net‑debt position, while the forward PE of 13.9 and upside potential of ~54% point to significant undervaluation despite the elevated volatility (68% 30‑day) and beta (1.76).
Fundamentally, the company reported a $228 M profit and $578 M adjusted EBITDA for 2025, with the Kamoa‑Kakula complex delivering a 44% margin on CAD 3.28 B revenue, underscoring strong operating performance. However, the balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity of 22.1, negative operating cash flow, and a net‑debt position, while the forward PE of 13.9 and upside potential of ~54% point to significant undervaluation despite the elevated volatility (68% 30‑day) and beta (1.76).
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support at CAD 12.38
- RSI indicating oversold conditions
- Recent profit and strong Kamoa‑Kakula margins
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Forward PE of 13.9 suggesting cheap earnings
- Upside potential >50% based on analyst targets
- Robust project cash generation despite current cash‑flow deficits
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- High‑grade copper and PGM assets in Africa
- Long‑term commodity demand outlook
- Strategic growth from Kamoa‑Kakula and Kipushi expansions
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth239.20%
Profit Margin59.23%
P/E Ratio47.8
ROE4.32%
ROA-0.63%
Debt/Equity22.13
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash FlowCA$-127453000
Free Cash FlowCA$-357274624
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI30.8
SupportCA$12.38
ResistanceCA$17.43
MA 20CA$14.69
MA 50CA$16.06
MA 200CA$13.49
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Target PriceCA$19.16
Upside/Downside54.06%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.76
Volatility68.05%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.