IRFC:NSEIRFC FUTURES Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-06 - not real-time
₹83.40
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The moving-average structure behind Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited is bearish at INR 83.40, with short-term averages lagging the long-term ones. Over a rolling month the price has lost 4.8%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 33.6 (approaching oversold) with MACD reading bearish. Watch INR 81.30 as support and INR 89.17 as the nearer resistance level.
The futures curve is in flat, with the curve offering little signal either way. Supply and demand read as oversupplied.
The composite risk read is 4/10, putting it in moderate territory. With 30-day volatility of 13.5%, a beta of -0.16 and a maximum drawdown of 38.3%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons diverge: sell near-term but hold on a long view, at 4/10 conviction over the longer horizon.
The futures curve is in flat, with the curve offering little signal either way. Supply and demand read as oversupplied.
The composite risk read is 4/10, putting it in moderate territory. With 30-day volatility of 13.5%, a beta of -0.16 and a maximum drawdown of 38.3%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons diverge: sell near-term but hold on a long view, at 4/10 conviction over the longer horizon.
Top Market Events
Indian Railway Finance Corporation IRFC reported a 10.RVNL vs IRFC vs IRCON vs IRCTC: Market experts believe IRFC is a proxy for railway capex with sovereign backing, RVNL...Yahoo Finance1dINDIAN RAILWAY FIN CORP L IRFC.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 102.34
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 102.34
- MACD momentum is negative
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Maximum drawdown of 38.3%
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- 30-day volatility of 13.5%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Commodity Metrics
Spot Price83.4
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelMedium
Supply/Demand RegimeOversupplied
USD SensitivityMedium
Rates SensitivityMedium
Geopolitical SensitivityMedium
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI33.6
Support₹81.30
Resistance₹89.17
MA 20₹85.59
MA 50₹87.68
MA 200₹102.34
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index95.48
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.16
Volatility13.50%
Sector RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskHigh
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.