IMKTA:NASDAQIngles Markets, Incorporated Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-18 - not real-time
$87.07
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Ingles Markets trades around $87.07, notably above its DCF-derived fair value of $69.37, indicating a material overvaluation. The stock sits just below its 20‑day SMA of 89.39 but remains above the 200‑day SMA of 79.41, supporting a technically bullish bias despite a bearish MACD histogram. Momentum metrics are neutral, with an RSI of 42.7 and a MACD signal that turned bearish, suggesting limited upside in the near term. Fundamentals reveal modest revenue growth of 3.4% and thin profit margins (~1.9%), while leverage is high with a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 76.6% and cash balances under $9 M. The company’s defensive consumer‑staples positioning cushions earnings, reflected in a low beta (≈0.11) and a 30‑day volatility of roughly 26%. Overall, the blend of overvaluation, weak profitability, and high leverage tempers enthusiasm, though the sector’s stability and stable cash flow provide a defensive floor.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Current price exceeds DCF fair value, indicating overvaluation
- Bearish MACD histogram and RSI below 50 signal limited upside
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio raises near‑term financial risk
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Defensive consumer‑staples sector provides earnings resilience
- Stable operating cash flow offsets modest profit margins
- Low beta and moderate volatility suggest limited price swings
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term defensive positioning in grocery retail supports baseline demand
- Potential price correction toward intrinsic value could improve risk‑reward
- Continued revenue growth, albeit modest, offers incremental upside
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.40%
Profit Margin1.93%
P/E Ratio15.9
ROE6.45%
ROA3.61%
Debt/Equity76.57
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$256.9M
Free Cash Flow$127.3M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI42.7
Support$83.09
Resistance$94.69
MA 20$89.39
MA 50$89.29
MA 200$79.41
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.5
Valuation
Fair Value$69.37
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.11
Volatility26.03%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.