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IMKTA:NASDAQIngles Markets, Incorporated Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-18 - not real-time

$87.07

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Ingles Markets trades around $87.07, notably above its DCF-derived fair value of $69.37, indicating a material overvaluation. The stock sits just below its 20‑day SMA of 89.39 but remains above the 200‑day SMA of 79.41, supporting a technically bullish bias despite a bearish MACD histogram. Momentum metrics are neutral, with an RSI of 42.7 and a MACD signal that turned bearish, suggesting limited upside in the near term. Fundamentals reveal modest revenue growth of 3.4% and thin profit margins (~1.9%), while leverage is high with a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 76.6% and cash balances under $9 M. The company’s defensive consumer‑staples positioning cushions earnings, reflected in a low beta (≈0.11) and a 30‑day volatility of roughly 26%. Overall, the blend of overvaluation, weak profitability, and high leverage tempers enthusiasm, though the sector’s stability and stable cash flow provide a defensive floor.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Current price exceeds DCF fair value, indicating overvaluation
  • Bearish MACD histogram and RSI below 50 signal limited upside
  • High debt‑to‑equity ratio raises near‑term financial risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Defensive consumer‑staples sector provides earnings resilience
  • Stable operating cash flow offsets modest profit margins
  • Low beta and moderate volatility suggest limited price swings

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term defensive positioning in grocery retail supports baseline demand
  • Potential price correction toward intrinsic value could improve risk‑reward
  • Continued revenue growth, albeit modest, offers incremental upside

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.40%
Profit Margin1.93%
P/E Ratio15.9
ROE6.45%
ROA3.61%
Debt/Equity76.57
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$256.9M
Free Cash Flow$127.3M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI42.7
Support$83.09
Resistance$94.69
MA 20$89.39
MA 50$89.29
MA 200$79.41
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.5

Valuation

Fair Value$69.37
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.11
Volatility26.03%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.