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IMKTA:NASDAQIngles Markets, Incorporated Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$86.72

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Ingles Markets trades around $86.7, roughly 30% above its DCF‑derived fair value of $67, while still offering a sub‑1% dividend yield and a modest PE of 15.8. Technical signals are mixed: the 20‑day SMA (≈$88.1) sits just above the current price, the MACD histogram is negative and labeled bearish, and RSI is neutral at 46, suggesting limited upside momentum. Fundamentally, the company posted a 3.4% revenue increase year‑over‑year, but margins remain thin (gross margin 24%, profit margin 1.9%) and debt‑to‑equity is high at ~77%, though free cash flow is positive. Recent corporate news has been limited to routine earnings releases and the 2026 annual meeting, with no material operational changes disclosed.
Given the low beta (~0.35) and a 30‑day volatility of 27.7%, the stock exhibits modest market sensitivity but faces liquidity constraints, as daily volume is far below its 10‑day average. The valuation picture is mixed: price‑to‑book is near parity (0.99) and price‑to‑sales is low (0.30), supporting a value narrative, yet the price premium to DCF suggests the market may be over‑pricing growth expectations. The dividend, with a 12% payout ratio, appears sustainable, providing a modest income buffer.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram and proximity to resistance at $92.8
  • Neutral RSI indicating no strong buying pressure
  • Modest dividend yield providing limited downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Stable revenue growth but thin profit margins
  • Low beta suggesting limited market volatility
  • High debt level tempering upside potential

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Attractive valuation multiples (P/B ~1, P/S ~0.3) relative to peers
  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
  • Defensive consumer sector positioning with consistent cash flow

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.40%
Profit Margin1.93%
P/E Ratio15.8
ROE6.45%
ROA3.61%
Debt/Equity76.57
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$256.9M
Free Cash Flow$127.3M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI46.2
Support$82.71
Resistance$92.84
MA 20$88.13
MA 50$88.55
MA 200$76.94
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.39

Valuation

Fair Value$67.04
GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.77%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.36
Volatility27.74%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.