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ILMN:NASDAQIllumina, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$122.35

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Illumina delivered a 5% increase in revenue and a striking 42% jump in non‑GAAP EPS, underscoring the strength of its expanding multi‑omics portfolio. The company trades at a forward‑PE of 20.96, well below the industry average of 25.2, and boasts a ROE of 33%, indicating efficient capital use. However, its debt‑to‑equity ratio of 93.8% and net debt exceeding $1 billion highlight a leverage concern that must be monitored. On the technical side, the stock sits just below its 20‑day SMA (122.97) and well under the 50‑day SMA (134.21), while the RSI of 42 suggests neutral momentum. The MACD histogram is positive and the signal line is bullish, offering a modest upside momentum despite decreasing volume. Current price of $122.35 is supported at $112.65 and faces resistance near $134.76, framing a clear trading range. Volatility remains elevated at 47% over the past 30 days and beta is near 1.0, implying market‑aligned risk. The DCF‑derived fair value of $82.58 points to a valuation gap, yet the model‑based upside of roughly 11% tempers the overvaluation narrative. Investor sentiment is in the “Extreme Greed” zone (Fear & Greed Index 76.91), which could fuel short‑term price pressure. In sum, Illumina’s solid earnings growth and attractive valuation multiples are offset by leverage, regulatory uncertainty, and heightened volatility, suggesting a cautious but optimistic stance.
For investors, the immediate focus should be on the $112.65 support level and the upcoming earnings cycle, while medium‑ to long‑term confidence rests on the company’s ability to sustain its high margins, expand its multi‑omics offerings, and manage debt levels.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD histogram despite price below SMA50
  • Decreasing volume indicating reduced short‑term participation
  • Proximity to support at $112.65 and resistance at $134.76

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue and EPS beat with 5% top‑line growth and 42% EPS surge
  • PE discount to industry peers and strong ROE
  • Expansion of multi‑omics portfolio positioning future growth

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained high gross (68%) and operating margins
  • Robust cash flow generation versus debt levels
  • Strategic market leadership in genomic sequencing and diagnostics

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.00%
Profit Margin19.57%
P/E Ratio22.4
ROE33.36%
ROA8.39%
Debt/Equity93.76
P/B Ratio6.9
Op. Cash Flow$1.1B
Free Cash Flow$786.0M
Industry P/E25.2

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI42.1
Support$112.65
Resistance$134.76
MA 20$122.97
MA 50$134.21
MA 200$111.49
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91

Valuation

Fair Value$82.58
Target Price$136.05
Upside/Downside11.20%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.02
Volatility46.97%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.