IIIV:NASDAQi3 Verticals, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time
$19.05
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The stock is trading at $19.05, just above the computed 20‑day SMA of 21.17 and 50‑day SMA of 21.83, indicating short‑term weakness relative to its recent average price. Technical indicators are bearish: MACD line (-0.84) sits below its signal (-0.54) with a negative histogram (-0.30), and the 14‑day RSI is 36, suggesting oversold conditions that may precede further declines. Volatility is extreme, with a 30‑day realized volatility of 50.68 % and a max drawdown of –43.55 %, reinforcing a high‑risk profile.
Fundamental valuation appears stretched: the trailing PE of 173 far exceeds the industry average of 38, while the forward PE of 15 hints at a potential re‑rating if earnings improve. Revenue growth is modest at 6.2 % YoY, gross margin is only 19 %, and profit margin is negative (‑2 %), signaling value‑oriented characteristics rather than growth. The company carries no dividend and has a payout ratio of 0, confirming that dividend sustainability is absent. Beta of 0.95 ties the stock closely to market moves, but the bearish trend direction and increasing volume suggest downward pressure may persist. The sector (Technology – Software Infrastructure) carries high competitive and regulatory exposure, especially given the firm’s reliance on government contracts.
Fundamental valuation appears stretched: the trailing PE of 173 far exceeds the industry average of 38, while the forward PE of 15 hints at a potential re‑rating if earnings improve. Revenue growth is modest at 6.2 % YoY, gross margin is only 19 %, and profit margin is negative (‑2 %), signaling value‑oriented characteristics rather than growth. The company carries no dividend and has a payout ratio of 0, confirming that dividend sustainability is absent. Beta of 0.95 ties the stock closely to market moves, but the bearish trend direction and increasing volume suggest downward pressure may persist. The sector (Technology – Software Infrastructure) carries high competitive and regulatory exposure, especially given the firm’s reliance on government contracts.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- bearish MACD and RSI indicating near‑term downside
- price below 20‑day SMA and approaching support level
- high volatility and large drawdown risk
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- forward PE of 15 suggests upside if earnings improve
- modest revenue growth and potential contract renewals
- still overvalued relative to current earnings
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- government contract base provides stable cash flow
- lack of dividend and negative profit margin limit return
- valuation could improve if margins turn positive
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.20%
Profit Margin-2.01%
P/E Ratio173.2
Debt/Equity19.54
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$13.7M
Industry P/E38.0
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI36.0
Support$18.47
Resistance$24.11
MA 20$21.17
MA 50$21.83
MA 200$26.10
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.41
Valuation
Fair Value$3.00
Target Price$28.50
Upside/Downside49.61%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.95
Volatility50.68%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.