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IIIV:NASDAQi3 Verticals, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-29 - not real-time

$20.05

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

i3 Verticals is trading at $20.05, which sits below its 20‑day (20.55) and 50‑day (21.46) simple moving averages, indicating short‑term weakness, yet the MACD histogram (+0.059) and a bullish MACD signal suggest underlying momentum may be turning. The stock’s RSI of 45 is neutral, while volatility is elevated at ~49% over the past 30 days, underscoring a high‑risk price environment. Fundamentals show modest top‑line growth (6.2% YoY revenue increase to $293 M) but profitability remains a concern with a negative net margin (‑2%) and a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 19.5, reflecting heavy leverage. Valuation metrics are stretched – a trailing P/E of 182 versus an industry average of 41 and a DCF‑derived fair value of $3.11 imply the market is pricing in significant growth expectations despite the current earnings gap. Recent earnings releases highlight stronger recurring revenue and a forward EPS outlook of $1.27, supporting a forward P/E of 15.85 and a “strong_buy” analyst consensus with a median target of $28.50, suggesting upside potential if the company can sustain its revenue momentum and improve margins.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term SMAs indicating bearish bias
  • High 30‑day volatility (~49%) raising price risk
  • Bullish MACD histogram suggesting possible near‑term rebound

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Forward P/E of 15.9 aligns with more reasonable valuation
  • Recurring revenue strength and FY2026 revenue guidance $221‑$229 M
  • Analyst consensus of strong_buy with median target $28.50 (+42% upside)

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Persistent high leverage (debt‑to‑equity 19.5) and negative profit margin
  • DCF fair value of $3.11 suggests long‑run valuation pressure
  • Technology‑infrastructure sector exposure to budget cycles and regulatory changes

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.20%
Profit Margin-2.01%
P/E Ratio182.3
Debt/Equity19.54
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$13.7M
Industry P/E40.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI45.2
Support$18.47
Resistance$24.11
MA 20$20.55
MA 50$21.46
MA 200$25.82
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index93.36

Valuation

Fair Value$3.11
Target Price$28.50
Upside/Downside42.14%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.96
Volatility49.24%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.