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HZO:NYSEMarineMax, Inc. (FL) Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-09 - not real-time

$27.50

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

MarineMax (HZO) is trading at $27.5, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 26.32 but still below the 50‑day SMA of 27.82, indicating mixed short‑term momentum. The MACD histogram is positive and the MACD line sits above its signal line, a bullish signal, while the RSI of 53.7 suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Recent news of a new stock repurchase plan and a 3.1% price jump have fueled optimism, reflected in an "Extreme Greed" sentiment index of 83.45.
Fundamentally, the company posted $2.35 B in revenue with 7.8% growth, yet margins remain thin (gross margin 31.6%, operating margin 1.1%) and trailing EPS is negative. Forward EPS of $1.67 translates to a forward P/E of about 16.5, and the price‑to‑book ratio of 0.65 signals a substantial discount to book value. However, the balance sheet is leveraged, with a debt‑to‑equity of 129% and total debt exceeding $1.2 B, while cash sits at $164 M. The DCF‑derived fair value suggests roughly 15% upside to the current price, supporting a view that the stock is undervalued relative to its intrinsic potential.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD with positive histogram
  • Recent stock repurchase announcement boosting sentiment
  • High 30‑day volatility and decreasing volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Forward earnings estimate turning positive
  • Price‑to‑book ratio of 0.65 indicating deep discount
  • Potential upside of ~15% based on DCF target

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term demand for recreational boating in a consumer‑cyclical sector
  • Strategic share buyback reducing dilution
  • Opportunity to improve leverage as cash flow stabilizes

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.80%
Profit Margin-2.46%
P/E Ratio16.5
ROE-5.85%
ROA1.66%
Debt/Equity129.66
P/B Ratio0.6
Op. Cash Flow$235.8M
Free Cash Flow$148.6M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI53.7
Support$24.22
Resistance$29.44
MA 20$26.32
MA 50$27.82
MA 200$25.96
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.45

Valuation

Fair Value$78.61
Target Price$31.86
Upside/Downside15.84%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.96
Volatility48.85%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.