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HYFM:NASDAQHydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-09 - not real-time

$0.98

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Hydrofarm Holdings Group (HYFM) is trading well below its 20‑day (≈$1.08), 50‑day (≈$1.25) and 200‑day (≈$2.55) simple moving averages, indicating a pronounced bearish price trend. The RSI sits at roughly 38, suggesting the stock is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD line has just nudged above its signal, delivering a faint bullish signal on an otherwise weak chart. Volume is on a decreasing trajectory, and the 30‑day volatility exceeds 100%, underscoring a highly erratic price environment. On the fundamentals side, the company reports a steep revenue decline of 32.7%, negative gross (≈11%) and operating margins (≈‑46%), and a massive net loss per share. Debt dwarfs cash, and both the P/E and P/B ratios are deeply negative, reflecting severe profitability challenges.
The latest material news confirms the release of the Q4 and full‑year 2025 results, which continue to show negative earnings and a deteriorating balance sheet. Combined with a market‑cap of under $5 M, thin trading volumes and a maximum drawdown near 79%, the stock presents a classic high‑risk, low‑valuation profile that may appeal only to speculative investors willing to tolerate extreme price swings.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 3/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish price trend below all major SMAs
  • Decreasing volume and extreme short‑term volatility
  • Continued negative earnings and widening losses

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Potential bottoming signal from MACD crossover
  • Oversold RSI hinting at possible rebound
  • Still substantial balance‑sheet weakness and debt burden

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Deep discount to sales (price‑to‑sales ~0.03) offering value upside
  • Industry tailwinds for indoor controlled‑environment agriculture
  • Persistent profitability issues and high drawdown risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-32.70%
Profit Margin-215.85%
P/E Ratio-1.6
ROE-361.28%
ROA-10.17%
P/B Ratio-0.1
Op. Cash Flow$-14059000
Free Cash Flow$5.6M
Industry P/E30.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI38.4
Support$0.97
Resistance$1.34
MA 20$1.08
MA 50$1.25
MA 200$2.55
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.54

Valuation

GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.35
Volatility108.05%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.