HWKN:NASDAQHawkins, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-09 - not real-time
$147.11
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Hawkins, Inc. is trading around $147, just below its 20‑day SMA (146.1) and 50‑day SMA (144.7), while the 200‑day SMA sits higher at 153, indicating a neutral medium‑term bias. Technicals show a modest bullish MACD crossover and an RSI near 50, suggesting no immediate overbought/oversold pressure, but the 30‑day volatility of over 40% and a decreasing volume trend flag heightened short‑term risk.
Fundamentally, the company posts modest profitability (ROE ~17%, free cash flow positive) and a low payout ratio (~19%), supporting dividend sustainability, yet revenue is contracting (-1.6%) and valuation multiples are elevated (P/E ~37, P/B ~5.9). Insider buying of ~$590k adds a positive sentiment cue, while analyst consensus remains a “Buy” with median price target of $184, implying roughly 25% upside despite a DCF fair value estimate far below current levels.
Fundamentally, the company posts modest profitability (ROE ~17%, free cash flow positive) and a low payout ratio (~19%), supporting dividend sustainability, yet revenue is contracting (-1.6%) and valuation multiples are elevated (P/E ~37, P/B ~5.9). Insider buying of ~$590k adds a positive sentiment cue, while analyst consensus remains a “Buy” with median price target of $184, implying roughly 25% upside despite a DCF fair value estimate far below current levels.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Neutral technical trend with bullish MACD but high volatility
- Decreasing volume suggests weaker short‑term liquidity
- Price approaching identified resistance around $157
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Analyst median price target of $184 indicating ~25% upside
- Insider buying signals confidence in upcoming performance
- Sustainable dividend and solid free cash flow support total return
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Consistent ROE and positive free cash flow underpin long‑term profitability
- Diversified specialty‑chemicals exposure mitigates single‑segment risk
- Low dividend payout ratio provides cushion for future growth or share repurchases
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-1.60%
Profit Margin7.75%
P/E Ratio37.1
ROE16.89%
ROA8.66%
Debt/Equity42.30
P/B Ratio5.9
Op. Cash Flow$137.4M
Free Cash Flow$69.9M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI49.5
Support$128.75
Resistance$157.15
MA 20$146.10
MA 50$144.72
MA 200$153.22
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.46
Valuation
Fair Value$40.80
Target Price$188.00
Upside/Downside27.80%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.52%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.95
Volatility41.43%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.