HOMB:NYSEHome BancShares, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-08 - not real-time
$27.44
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Home BancShares trades at $27.44, slightly below its DCF‑derived fair value of $27.87, delivering a P/E of ~11.4 versus the industry average of 16.8 and a dividend yield of 2.99% with a modest 33% payout ratio. The bank posted 10.8% revenue growth and a strong operating margin of 57%, supporting a "Buy" consensus from eight analysts.
Technically, the stock sits above its 20‑day SMA but below the 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs, with RSI at 55 and a bullish MACD histogram, while the broader trend remains bearish and volume is on a downtrend. The current price sits near the $27.56 resistance and well above the $25.68 support, offering limited upside in the short run but a 20% upside potential to the DCF target amid an "Extreme Greed" market sentiment.
Technically, the stock sits above its 20‑day SMA but below the 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs, with RSI at 55 and a bullish MACD histogram, while the broader trend remains bearish and volume is on a downtrend. The current price sits near the $27.56 resistance and well above the $25.68 support, offering limited upside in the short run but a 20% upside potential to the DCF target amid an "Extreme Greed" market sentiment.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near resistance with decreasing volume
- Bearish trend despite bullish MACD histogram
- Support level provides downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to DCF and peers
- Strong earnings and revenue growth
- Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Stable regional banking franchise with diversified loan portfolio
- Consistent profitability and solid ROE
- Favorable valuation multiples and sustainable dividend
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth10.80%
Profit Margin44.49%
P/E Ratio11.4
ROE11.52%
ROA2.10%
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$399.3M
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI55.7
Support$25.68
Resistance$27.56
MA 20$26.61
MA 50$27.96
MA 200$28.29
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index84.95
Valuation
Fair Value$27.87
Target Price$33.13
Upside/Downside20.72%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.99%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.77
Volatility21.41%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.