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HNNA:NASDAQHennessy Advisors, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time

$9.92

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Hennessy Advisors is trading at $9.92, just above the computed support of $9.70 and well below its DCF fair value of $84.25, indicating a deep discount. The 20‑day SMA ($9.98) sits marginally above price while the 50‑day SMA ($9.85) is below, suggesting a neutral short‑term bias, and the MACD histogram is negative, flagging bearish momentum. RSI at 48.6 reinforces a lack of strong buying pressure, though volume is increasing, hinting at potential accumulation. Valuation metrics are compelling: a trailing PE of 9.36 versus the industry average of 16.48, a price‑to‑book of 0.78 and a dividend yield of 6.05% with a payout ratio near 54%, all supported by $73.1M in cash and negligible debt. Operating margins (32%) and free cash flow ($45.8M) are robust, providing a solid cushion for dividend sustainability. The stock’s beta of 0.28 and 30‑day volatility of ~21% point to low systematic risk, yet the market cap of $78M and modest average volumes raise liquidity concerns. Overall, the combination of an outsized valuation gap, strong cash generation, and a generous dividend makes HNNA an attractive value play, provided investors can tolerate the liquidity and small‑cap nuances.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just above support at $9.70
  • Bearish MACD histogram and neutral RSI
  • Increasing volume suggesting possible buying interest

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation discount to DCF and peers
  • High dividend yield with sustainable payout
  • Strong cash position and low debt

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term mean reversion potential given deep undervaluation
  • Consistent free cash flow supporting dividend and growth
  • Low beta and defensive asset‑management business model

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-12.30%
Profit Margin25.40%
P/E Ratio9.4
ROE8.59%
ROA4.38%
Debt/Equity0.52
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow$10.8M
Free Cash Flow$45.8M
Industry P/E16.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI48.6
Support$9.70
Resistance$10.26
MA 20$9.98
MA 50$9.85
MA 200$10.22
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.3

Valuation

Fair Value$84.25
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield6.05%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.28
Volatility20.76%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.