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HIG:NYSEThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-08 - not real-time

$135.76

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The Hartford is trading well below its intrinsic valuation, with the market price sitting comfortably under the 20‑day moving average and showing a neutral technical stance. Fundamentally, the company delivers strong profitability margins, solid cash generation and a low payout ratio, supporting the sustainability of its dividend. Recent commentary highlights a disciplined focus on core insurance operations and improved pricing, which dovetails with the modest revenue growth and robust operating cash flow. With a beta well under one and volatility in line with the broader market, the stock presents a risk‑adjusted upside opportunity, especially given the considerable gap between the current price and the DCF‑derived fair value.
The combination of a low PE relative to peers, a healthy dividend yield, and a solid balance sheet positions HIG as an attractive value play, while the ongoing pricing improvements and strategic refocus provide a growth narrative that could sustain longer‑term appreciation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near short‑term support with limited upside in the near term
  • Neutral technical indicators (RSI around midpoint, MACD histogram positive)
  • Strong dividend with low payout ratio provides downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Improved pricing in core insurance lines driving earnings expansion
  • Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
  • Consistent cash flow generation supporting reinvestment and dividend stability

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic focus on core insurance business enhances long‑term profitability
  • Low beta and defensive sector characteristics reduce market volatility exposure
  • Sustainable dividend and strong balance sheet underpin long‑term shareholder returns

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.70%
Profit Margin13.52%
P/E Ratio10.2
ROE21.66%
ROA3.72%
Debt/Equity23.94
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$5.9B
Free Cash Flow$5.8B
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI49.8
Support$130.75
Resistance$139.22
MA 20$134.56
MA 50$137.42
MA 200$132.01
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index85.25

Valuation

Fair Value$373.04
Target Price$150.00
Upside/Downside10.49%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.77%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.43
Volatility16.55%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.