HIG:NYSEThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-08 - not real-time
$135.76
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The Hartford is trading well below its intrinsic valuation, with the market price sitting comfortably under the 20‑day moving average and showing a neutral technical stance. Fundamentally, the company delivers strong profitability margins, solid cash generation and a low payout ratio, supporting the sustainability of its dividend. Recent commentary highlights a disciplined focus on core insurance operations and improved pricing, which dovetails with the modest revenue growth and robust operating cash flow. With a beta well under one and volatility in line with the broader market, the stock presents a risk‑adjusted upside opportunity, especially given the considerable gap between the current price and the DCF‑derived fair value.
The combination of a low PE relative to peers, a healthy dividend yield, and a solid balance sheet positions HIG as an attractive value play, while the ongoing pricing improvements and strategic refocus provide a growth narrative that could sustain longer‑term appreciation.
The combination of a low PE relative to peers, a healthy dividend yield, and a solid balance sheet positions HIG as an attractive value play, while the ongoing pricing improvements and strategic refocus provide a growth narrative that could sustain longer‑term appreciation.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price near short‑term support with limited upside in the near term
- Neutral technical indicators (RSI around midpoint, MACD histogram positive)
- Strong dividend with low payout ratio provides downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Improved pricing in core insurance lines driving earnings expansion
- Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
- Consistent cash flow generation supporting reinvestment and dividend stability
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Strategic focus on core insurance business enhances long‑term profitability
- Low beta and defensive sector characteristics reduce market volatility exposure
- Sustainable dividend and strong balance sheet underpin long‑term shareholder returns
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.70%
Profit Margin13.52%
P/E Ratio10.2
ROE21.66%
ROA3.72%
Debt/Equity23.94
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$5.9B
Free Cash Flow$5.8B
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI49.8
Support$130.75
Resistance$139.22
MA 20$134.56
MA 50$137.42
MA 200$132.01
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index85.25
Valuation
Fair Value$373.04
Target Price$150.00
Upside/Downside10.49%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.77%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.43
Volatility16.55%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.