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HDFCBANK:NSEHDFC BANK FUTURES Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-07 - not real-time

₹748.20

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The equity is trading at ₹748.2, which sits below the 20‑day SMA of ₹759.5 and the 50‑day SMA of ₹773.6, signaling a short‑term bearish bias. The RSI at 41 hints at a nearing oversold condition, while the MACD line remains in a bearish stance, reinforcing the downside pressure. Support is anchored around ₹733.2 and resistance near ₹790.9, with a 30‑day volatility of roughly 21.6% and a historic max drawdown of -27.8%, underscoring the price’s fragility. Nonetheless, the market sentiment index reads Extreme Greed (83.02), suggesting that investors remain optimistic despite the technical weakness.
Fundamentally, HDFC Bank posted a 9.1% YoY profit increase to ₹19,221 cr, with net interest income up 3.8%, and announced a ₹13 dividend yielding 1.74%. The forward P/E of 11.9 versus a trailing P/E of 16.7 indicates valuation headroom, while the price‑to‑book ratio of 1.97 remains reasonable. Volume trends are increasing, and the bank’s massive market cap provides ample liquidity, supporting a potential rebound from the current technical dip.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term SMAs and bearish MACD
  • Support level proximity offering downside cushion
  • Attractive dividend yield amid market optimism

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust earnings growth and rising NII
  • Forward P/E discount indicating valuation upside
  • Increasing volume trend supporting liquidity

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Strong market position as India's largest private lender
  • Sustainable dividend policy and solid balance sheet
  • Favorable macro‑economic backdrop with low currency risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Commodity Metrics

Spot Price748.2
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelMedium
Supply/Demand RegimeBalanced
USD SensitivityLow
Rates SensitivityHigh
Geopolitical SensitivityMedium

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI41.1
Support₹733.15
Resistance₹790.85
MA 20₹759.54
MA 50₹773.64
MA 200₹909.50
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.02

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.24
Volatility21.59%
Sector RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.