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GUJGASLTD:NSEGujarat Gas Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time

₹361.95

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Gujarat Gas Limited is currently trading at ₹361.95, well below its 20‑day (≈₹395.7), 50‑day (≈₹409.6) and 200‑day (≈₹427.1) simple moving averages, signaling a bearish technical backdrop. The RSI of 32.9 places the stock in oversold territory, while the MACD line (-11.5) sitting beneath the signal (-7.7) produces a bearish histogram, confirming downward momentum. Price is hovering just above the identified support at ₹356.35 and faces resistance near ₹432, with a recent 7% drop driven by concerns over potential LNG supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict. Volume is on an upward trend, but the 30‑day volatility of roughly 35% and a near‑zero beta (‑0.13) indicate heightened price swings with little market correlation.
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued – its trailing PE of 21.5 is below the industry average of 23.5 and the forward PE of 18.8 suggests further discounting, while analysts project an upside of about 20% to a median target of ₹430. A dividend yield of 1.59% with a 34% payout ratio points to sustainable income, and the company’s leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~1.74) is manageable given its cash reserves. Despite a recent revenue decline of 12% and modest margins, the extreme greed reading (81.5) reflects strong market appetite. Overall, the blend of technical oversold signals, valuation headroom, and a solid dividend framework supports a cautious but optimistic outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • LNG supply disruption risk
  • Price trading below 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs
  • High 30‑day volatility and bearish MACD

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervaluation with ~20% upside to target price
  • Attractive dividend yield of 1.59% with 34% payout
  • Improving forward PE relative to peers

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Regulated gas distribution ensures stable cash flows
  • Long‑term demand growth for natural gas in India
  • Consistent dividend policy and modest leverage

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-11.90%
Profit Margin7.54%
P/E Ratio21.5
Debt/Equity1.74
P/B Ratio2.9
Industry P/E23.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI32.9
Support₹356.35
Resistance₹432.00
MA 20₹395.71
MA 50₹409.64
MA 200₹427.07
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index81.54

Valuation

Target Price₹434.89
Upside/Downside20.15%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.59%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.13
Volatility34.80%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.