GUJGASLTD:NSEGujarat Gas Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time
₹361.95
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Gujarat Gas Limited is currently trading at ₹361.95, well below its 20‑day (≈₹395.7), 50‑day (≈₹409.6) and 200‑day (≈₹427.1) simple moving averages, signaling a bearish technical backdrop. The RSI of 32.9 places the stock in oversold territory, while the MACD line (-11.5) sitting beneath the signal (-7.7) produces a bearish histogram, confirming downward momentum. Price is hovering just above the identified support at ₹356.35 and faces resistance near ₹432, with a recent 7% drop driven by concerns over potential LNG supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict. Volume is on an upward trend, but the 30‑day volatility of roughly 35% and a near‑zero beta (‑0.13) indicate heightened price swings with little market correlation.
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued – its trailing PE of 21.5 is below the industry average of 23.5 and the forward PE of 18.8 suggests further discounting, while analysts project an upside of about 20% to a median target of ₹430. A dividend yield of 1.59% with a 34% payout ratio points to sustainable income, and the company’s leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~1.74) is manageable given its cash reserves. Despite a recent revenue decline of 12% and modest margins, the extreme greed reading (81.5) reflects strong market appetite. Overall, the blend of technical oversold signals, valuation headroom, and a solid dividend framework supports a cautious but optimistic outlook.
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued – its trailing PE of 21.5 is below the industry average of 23.5 and the forward PE of 18.8 suggests further discounting, while analysts project an upside of about 20% to a median target of ₹430. A dividend yield of 1.59% with a 34% payout ratio points to sustainable income, and the company’s leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~1.74) is manageable given its cash reserves. Despite a recent revenue decline of 12% and modest margins, the extreme greed reading (81.5) reflects strong market appetite. Overall, the blend of technical oversold signals, valuation headroom, and a solid dividend framework supports a cautious but optimistic outlook.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- LNG supply disruption risk
- Price trading below 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs
- High 30‑day volatility and bearish MACD
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Undervaluation with ~20% upside to target price
- Attractive dividend yield of 1.59% with 34% payout
- Improving forward PE relative to peers
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Regulated gas distribution ensures stable cash flows
- Long‑term demand growth for natural gas in India
- Consistent dividend policy and modest leverage
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-11.90%
Profit Margin7.54%
P/E Ratio21.5
Debt/Equity1.74
P/B Ratio2.9
Industry P/E23.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI32.9
Support₹356.35
Resistance₹432.00
MA 20₹395.71
MA 50₹409.64
MA 200₹427.07
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index81.54
Valuation
Target Price₹434.89
Upside/Downside20.15%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.59%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.13
Volatility34.80%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.