GPC:NYSEGenuine Parts Company Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
$108.96
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Genuine Parts Company is trading well below its short‑ and medium‑term moving averages, with the price hovering near a key support level. The RSI is deep in oversold territory and the MACD remains bearish, indicating continued downside pressure, while volume has been trending lower.
Fundamentally, the stock carries an astronomically high trailing PE, a modest forward PE, and a DCF valuation that is a fraction of the market price, suggesting the market is pricing in a significant earnings recovery that has yet to materialize. The recent earnings miss and a softer outlook for 2026 have amplified the negative sentiment, but the dividend yield remains attractive and the payout ratio is comfortably low, supporting dividend sustainability.
Fundamentally, the stock carries an astronomically high trailing PE, a modest forward PE, and a DCF valuation that is a fraction of the market price, suggesting the market is pricing in a significant earnings recovery that has yet to materialize. The recent earnings miss and a softer outlook for 2026 have amplified the negative sentiment, but the dividend yield remains attractive and the payout ratio is comfortably low, supporting dividend sustainability.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Q4 earnings miss and weaker outlook
- Technical indicators signaling bearish momentum
- Decreasing trading volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Forward earnings estimates imply potential earnings recovery
- Sustainable dividend yield provides income support
- High leverage and low profitability limit upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Dividend yield and low payout ratio remain attractive
- Cyclical recovery in auto parts could improve margins
- Elevated valuation relative to intrinsic DCF value
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.10%
Profit Margin0.27%
P/E Ratio231.8
ROE1.50%
ROA4.60%
Debt/Equity156.06
P/B Ratio3.4
Op. Cash Flow$890.8M
Free Cash Flow$677.9M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI26.2
Support$108.95
Resistance$151.57
MA 20$123.34
MA 50$129.87
MA 200$130.38
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91
Valuation
Fair Value$34.43
Target Price$144.78
Upside/Downside32.87%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.90%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.64
Volatility52.19%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.