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GMXTF:OTCGMexico Transportes SAB de CV Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$1.23

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

GMéxico Transportes is trading at $1.23, exactly at its 52‑week low and aligned with both the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs, while the 200‑day SMA sits higher at $1.42, confirming a bearish trend. The RSI is an extreme 2.6, indicating the stock is deeply oversold, and the MACD line has just nudged above its signal, hinting at a very short‑term bullish crossover. Support sits at $1.23 with resistance near $1.33, and volume has remained stable despite the thin trading activity.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a PE of 10.3 versus an industry average of 29.5, and its dividend yield of 8.9% is among the highest in the sector, though the payout ratio approaches 93%. The DCF fair value of $24.3 suggests the market may be severely undervaluing the business, but a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 82 and a net debt position far exceeding cash raise concerns about financial resilience. Low beta (0.13) and zero recent volatility point to minimal market‑risk exposure, yet the OTC listing and daily volume of just a few hundred shares signal acute liquidity risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • price at 52‑week low suggests potential bounce
  • RSI extreme oversold may trigger a short‑term reversal
  • liquidity constraints and high debt limit upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF indicates substantial upside relative to current price
  • PE well below industry average points to value opportunity
  • high dividend yield attractive if debt is managed

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • strategic position in Mexican logistics and rail infrastructure
  • stable operating cash flow generation
  • long‑run dividend appeal despite leverage

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.00%
Profit Margin14.43%
P/E Ratio10.3
ROE17.45%
ROA8.38%
Debt/Equity82.08
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash Flow$22.7B
Free Cash Flow$8.6B
Industry P/E29.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI2.6
Support$1.23
Resistance$1.33
MA 20$1.23
MA 50$1.23
MA 200$1.42
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index77.18

Valuation

Fair Value$24.27
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield8.87%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.14
0
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.