GMXTF:OTCGMexico Transportes SAB de CV Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
$1.23
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
GMéxico Transportes is trading at $1.23, exactly at its 52‑week low and aligned with both the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs, while the 200‑day SMA sits higher at $1.42, confirming a bearish trend. The RSI is an extreme 2.6, indicating the stock is deeply oversold, and the MACD line has just nudged above its signal, hinting at a very short‑term bullish crossover. Support sits at $1.23 with resistance near $1.33, and volume has remained stable despite the thin trading activity.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a PE of 10.3 versus an industry average of 29.5, and its dividend yield of 8.9% is among the highest in the sector, though the payout ratio approaches 93%. The DCF fair value of $24.3 suggests the market may be severely undervaluing the business, but a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 82 and a net debt position far exceeding cash raise concerns about financial resilience. Low beta (0.13) and zero recent volatility point to minimal market‑risk exposure, yet the OTC listing and daily volume of just a few hundred shares signal acute liquidity risk.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a PE of 10.3 versus an industry average of 29.5, and its dividend yield of 8.9% is among the highest in the sector, though the payout ratio approaches 93%. The DCF fair value of $24.3 suggests the market may be severely undervaluing the business, but a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 82 and a net debt position far exceeding cash raise concerns about financial resilience. Low beta (0.13) and zero recent volatility point to minimal market‑risk exposure, yet the OTC listing and daily volume of just a few hundred shares signal acute liquidity risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- price at 52‑week low suggests potential bounce
- RSI extreme oversold may trigger a short‑term reversal
- liquidity constraints and high debt limit upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF indicates substantial upside relative to current price
- PE well below industry average points to value opportunity
- high dividend yield attractive if debt is managed
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- strategic position in Mexican logistics and rail infrastructure
- stable operating cash flow generation
- long‑run dividend appeal despite leverage
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.00%
Profit Margin14.43%
P/E Ratio10.3
ROE17.45%
ROA8.38%
Debt/Equity82.08
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash Flow$22.7B
Free Cash Flow$8.6B
Industry P/E29.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI2.6
Support$1.23
Resistance$1.33
MA 20$1.23
MA 50$1.23
MA 200$1.42
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index77.18
Valuation
Fair Value$24.27
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield8.87%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.14
0Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.