GGRM:IDXPT Gudang Garam Tbk Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time
IDR 14,000.00
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading above its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, supporting a bullish bias, while the 30‑day volatility remains elevated and the RSI sits in the lower‑mid range, hinting at potential upside. However, the MACD shows a bearish divergence and volume trends downward, suggesting caution on short‑term moves.
Fundamental perspective: A discounted cash flow model points to a fair value well above the current price, and the price‑to‑book ratio is comfortably below one, indicating a value opportunity. The company delivers a solid dividend yield with a high payout supported by strong operating and free cash flow, yet it carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio and modest profit margins, and faces sector‑specific regulatory headwinds in the tobacco industry.
Fundamental perspective: A discounted cash flow model points to a fair value well above the current price, and the price‑to‑book ratio is comfortably below one, indicating a value opportunity. The company delivers a solid dividend yield with a high payout supported by strong operating and free cash flow, yet it carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio and modest profit margins, and faces sector‑specific regulatory headwinds in the tobacco industry.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price above short‑term moving averages
- RSI indicating near‑oversold conditions
- Decreasing volume and bearish MACD divergence
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF‑derived fair value above market price
- Low price‑to‑book and attractive dividend yield
- Defensive consumer‑defensive sector positioning
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend supported by strong cash flow
- Low beta indicating limited market volatility
- Long‑term defensive demand for tobacco products despite regulatory pressures
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-3.80%
Profit Margin1.19%
P/E Ratio24.6
ROE1.77%
ROA1.48%
Debt/Equity3.62
P/B Ratio0.4
Op. Cash FlowIDR6027.7B
Free Cash FlowIDR3113.9B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI37.9
SupportIDR 13,600.00
ResistanceIDR 17,475.00
MA 20IDR 15,632.50
MA 50IDR 15,627.50
MA 200IDR 12,534.63
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index81.48
Valuation
Fair ValueIDR 23,303.33
Target PriceIDR 13,655.56
Upside/Downside-2.46%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.57%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.35
Volatility58.69%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.