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GGRM:IDXPT Gudang Garam Tbk Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time

IDR 14,000.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The stock is trading above its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, supporting a bullish bias, while the 30‑day volatility remains elevated and the RSI sits in the lower‑mid range, hinting at potential upside. However, the MACD shows a bearish divergence and volume trends downward, suggesting caution on short‑term moves.
Fundamental perspective: A discounted cash flow model points to a fair value well above the current price, and the price‑to‑book ratio is comfortably below one, indicating a value opportunity. The company delivers a solid dividend yield with a high payout supported by strong operating and free cash flow, yet it carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio and modest profit margins, and faces sector‑specific regulatory headwinds in the tobacco industry.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above short‑term moving averages
  • RSI indicating near‑oversold conditions
  • Decreasing volume and bearish MACD divergence

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF‑derived fair value above market price
  • Low price‑to‑book and attractive dividend yield
  • Defensive consumer‑defensive sector positioning

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend supported by strong cash flow
  • Low beta indicating limited market volatility
  • Long‑term defensive demand for tobacco products despite regulatory pressures

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-3.80%
Profit Margin1.19%
P/E Ratio24.6
ROE1.77%
ROA1.48%
Debt/Equity3.62
P/B Ratio0.4
Op. Cash FlowIDR6027.7B
Free Cash FlowIDR3113.9B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI37.9
SupportIDR 13,600.00
ResistanceIDR 17,475.00
MA 20IDR 15,632.50
MA 50IDR 15,627.50
MA 200IDR 12,534.63
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index81.48

Valuation

Fair ValueIDR 23,303.33
Target PriceIDR 13,655.56
Upside/Downside-2.46%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.57%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.35
Volatility58.69%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.