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GENIL:BISTGen Ilac ve Saglik Urunleri Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time

TRY 9.35

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Gen Ilac trades at TRY 9.35, comfortably above its 20‑day (8.36) and 50‑day (8.88) moving averages but still below the 200‑day average (11.21), indicating a short‑term upside bias in a longer‑term bearish backdrop. Technical momentum is mixed: the RSI sits at 62 (approaching overbought), the MACD histogram is positive (0.20) with a bullish signal, yet the overall trend is flagged as bearish and volatility is high at 52% over the past 30 days. Fundamentally, the stock appears stretched: a trailing P/E of 62 × dwarfs the industry average of 26 ×, the price‑to‑book is 7.2 ×, and a discounted cash‑flow model suggests a fair value near TRY 3.0, implying a downside of roughly 14%. The dividend yield is modest (0.28 %) with a low payout ratio (≈18 %), and free cash flow is negative, though operating cash flow remains positive. The company’s debt‑to‑equity stands at 30 % and the max drawdown over the period exceeds 50 %, underscoring downside risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price well above short‑term moving averages with bearish longer‑term trend
  • High valuation multiples relative to peers
  • Elevated 30‑day volatility and recent max drawdown

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD signal may provide modest upside
  • Modest dividend offering some floor to price
  • Potential pipeline (Alzheimer’s molecule) could improve earnings

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamental overvaluation persists without clear growth trajectory
  • Regulatory and geographic headwinds in Turkish pharma market
  • Sustainable dividend but limited free cash flow generation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth0.50%
Profit Margin4.25%
P/E Ratio62.3
ROE8.10%
ROA8.14%
Debt/Equity30.35
P/B Ratio7.2
Op. Cash FlowTRY1.5B
Free Cash FlowTRY-209981200
Industry P/E26.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI62.4
SupportTRY 7.12
ResistanceTRY 10.03
MA 20TRY 8.36
MA 50TRY 8.88
MA 200TRY 11.21
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index81.16

Valuation

Fair ValueTRY 2.98
Target PriceTRY 8.00
Upside/Downside-14.44%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.28%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.49
Volatility52.24%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskHigh
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.