We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

GCO:NYSEGenesco Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-21 - not real-time

$35.67

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Genesco's stock is trading below its 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages, indicating short‑term weakness, while the broader trend remains bullish according to the computed trend direction. The RSI sits in a neutral zone, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, and the MACD has turned bearish, hinting at potential downward pressure in the near term. However, the DCF fair value is substantially higher than the current market price, pointing to a notable undervaluation and an upside opportunity. The company’s price‑to‑book ratio is well below one, reinforcing the value case, and the absence of a dividend eliminates yield concerns. High beta and a 30‑day volatility exceeding sixty percent signal a volatile equity that can swing sharply on market sentiment.
Fundamentally, Genesco shows modest revenue growth and a solid gross margin, yet its operating margin remains negative and return on equity is low, reflecting profitability challenges. The balance sheet carries a high debt load relative to equity, though cash flow from operations is positive, providing some cushion. The consumer cyclical sector exposure adds sensitivity to discretionary spending trends, while geographic diversification across North America and Europe moderates regional risk. No dividend is paid, so dividend sustainability is not applicable. Overall, the stock presents a value‑oriented entry point for investors comfortable with elevated risk and willing to navigate short‑term technical headwinds.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price below short‑term moving averages
  • bearish MACD signal
  • high short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF‑derived undervaluation
  • low price‑to‑book ratio
  • stable operating cash flow

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • persistent operating margin pressure
  • high debt‑to‑equity ratio
  • exposure to consumer discretionary cycles

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth2.80%
Profit Margin0.80%
P/E Ratio19.3
ROE3.66%
ROA1.22%
Debt/Equity104.22
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$144.0M
Free Cash Flow$79.4M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI46.2
Support$32.74
Resistance$43.60
MA 20$38.20
MA 50$35.68
MA 200$30.84
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Fair Value$56.75
Target Price$40.33
Upside/Downside13.07%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.71
Volatility67.55%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.