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GCO:NYSEGenesco Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-05 - not real-time

$28.39

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Genesco’s stock is trading at $28.39, comfortably above its 20‑day ($26.70), 50‑day ($27.90) and 200‑day ($27.98) simple moving averages, and the MACD line sits at +0.30 with a bullish signal, suggesting short‑term momentum support. However, volume is on a decreasing trend and the technical trend indicator flags a bearish direction, while the 30‑day volatility is a steep 53% and beta stands at 1.64, highlighting heightened market sensitivity. RSI at 56 indicates the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further moves.
Fundamentally, GCO shows modest revenue growth of 7.2% but squeezes profit margins (gross 46%, operating 7%, net 0.5%) and carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of ~92%, raising solvency concerns. Valuation metrics paint a more attractive picture: a price‑to‑book of 0.54, forward PE of 10.36 and a DCF‑derived fair value near $100 imply roughly 27% upside potential, though the absence of any dividend eliminates income‑focused appeal.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price above key moving averages
  • Bullish MACD histogram
  • Decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value indicating ~27% upside
  • Low price‑to‑book and forward PE
  • Revenue growth and improving forward EPS

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Structural undervaluation relative to book value
  • Potential recovery in profit margins
  • Cyclical upside as consumer discretionary demand rebounds

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.20%
Profit Margin0.55%
P/E Ratio22.7
ROE2.38%
ROA1.14%
Debt/Equity91.95
P/B Ratio0.5
Op. Cash Flow$145.8M
Free Cash Flow$81.8M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI56.1
Support$24.38
Resistance$31.28
MA 20$26.70
MA 50$27.90
MA 200$27.98
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Valuation

Fair Value$100.02
Target Price$36.00
Upside/Downside26.81%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta1.64
Volatility53.01%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.