GDEN:NASDAQGolden Entertainment, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-05 - not real-time
$27.04
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Golden Entertainment trades just above its near‑term support of $25.9 and below a clear resistance around $28.7, with the 20‑day SMA sitting below the 50‑day SMA but above the 200‑day SMA, indicating a neutral to mildly bullish stance. Technical signals such as an RSI near 47 and a bullish MACD crossover support a modest upside, while volume is on the rise, suggesting accumulating interest.
However, the fundamentals tell a different story: revenue is contracting, the company posted a negative trailing EPS, and its debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeds 120%, raising concerns about financial stability. The dividend yield of 3.7% looks attractive, but the sustainability is questionable given the earnings shortfall and high leverage. Moreover, a DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $2.1 versus the current price of $27 signals that the market may be heavily overvaluing the stock despite an analyst consensus target of $30 and a modest upside projection.
However, the fundamentals tell a different story: revenue is contracting, the company posted a negative trailing EPS, and its debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeds 120%, raising concerns about financial stability. The dividend yield of 3.7% looks attractive, but the sustainability is questionable given the earnings shortfall and high leverage. Moreover, a DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $2.1 versus the current price of $27 signals that the market may be heavily overvaluing the stock despite an analyst consensus target of $30 and a modest upside projection.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering near technical support
- Neutral trend with modest bullish MACD
- Recent earnings miss and negative EPS
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Forward EPS growth and attractive forward PE
- Dividend yield offering cash return
- Analyst target price implying ~10% upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High debt load and low ROE
- Cyclical exposure of casino sector
- Uncertain profitability trajectory
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-5.20%
Profit Margin-0.95%
P/E Ratio22.3
ROE-1.35%
ROA1.89%
Debt/Equity123.06
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash Flow$83.1M
Free Cash Flow$38.4M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI47.3
Support$25.88
Resistance$28.70
MA 20$27.11
MA 50$27.74
MA 200$26.84
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8
Valuation
Fair Value$2.14
Target Price$30.00
Upside/Downside10.95%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.70%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.47
Volatility20.65%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.