FXNC:NASDAQFirst National Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time
$27.82
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
First National Corporation trades at $27.82, barely below its 20‑day SMA of $27.38 and sits in a neutral technical zone, with a bullish MACD histogram (+0.05) and a modest RSI of 54 indicating no immediate overbought pressure. Volatility remains high at 26% over the past 30 days, yet its beta of roughly 0.6 suggests the stock moves less than the broader market, tempering systematic risk. Fundamentally, the company delivers solid earnings (EPS $2.32) and a healthy operating margin of 31%, while maintaining a low debt profile and a dividend yield of 2.44% backed by a modest 28% payout ratio.
The DCF‑derived fair value of $60.37 points to a substantial undervaluation relative to the current price, even though the analyst‑based upside estimate is modest at ~2.4%. Combined with steady revenue growth of 10.6% and a strong cash position, the stock presents an attractive value play for income‑focused investors seeking exposure to regional banking with limited market volatility.
The DCF‑derived fair value of $60.37 points to a substantial undervaluation relative to the current price, even though the analyst‑based upside estimate is modest at ~2.4%. Combined with steady revenue growth of 10.6% and a strong cash position, the stock presents an attractive value play for income‑focused investors seeking exposure to regional banking with limited market volatility.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering near short‑term support at $26.36
- Neutral technical trend with modest bullish MACD signal
- High recent volatility and decreasing volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued DCF fair value versus current market price
- Consistent revenue growth and strong operating margins
- Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Robust cash position and low leverage
- Stable dividend policy supporting income investors
- Long‑term valuation gap offering upside potential
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth10.60%
Profit Margin23.56%
P/E Ratio12.0
ROE11.75%
ROA1.02%
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$28.0M
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI54.0
Support$26.36
Resistance$29.35
MA 20$27.38
MA 50$27.45
MA 200$25.20
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Fair Value$60.37
Target Price$28.50
Upside/Downside2.44%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.44%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.61
Volatility26.00%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.