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FXNC:NASDAQFirst National Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-08-01 - not real-time

$31.75

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

FXNC is trading at $31.75, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 29.78 and 50‑day SMA of 29.34, while still under the 200‑day SMA of 26.74 that now acts as a strong support floor. The MACD line sits at 0.48 above the signal line (0.25), confirming bullish momentum, but the RSI of 68 hints that the rally may be approaching overbought territory. Volume is on a decreasing trend, suggesting that the next move could be a short‑term pull‑back toward the support zone around $26.30 before testing the ceiling at $32.18.
Fundamentally, the bank delivers solid growth – revenue is up 9.8% YoY and profit margins sit near 24% with an operating margin of 33%. A P/E of 13.3 is well below the industry average of 18.0, indicating the stock is undervalued relative to peers. The dividend yield of 2.14% is backed by a modest payout ratio (~28%), and the low beta of 0.33 together with a 30‑day volatility of 26% points to relatively stable price behavior. Overall, FXNC blends attractive value metrics with credible growth and a sustainable dividend, making it a compelling candidate for patient investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD but RSI near overbought
  • Proximity to resistance at $32.18
  • Decreasing volume suggesting possible short‑term pullback

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued P/E vs industry
  • Consistent revenue and profit margin expansion
  • Sustainable dividend yield of 2.14%

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta indicating defensive characteristics
  • Stable earnings and solid ROE (~12%)
  • Long‑term dividend sustainability and modest growth outlook

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.80%
Profit Margin23.84%
P/E Ratio13.3
ROE11.81%
ROA1.05%
P/B Ratio1.5
Industry P/E18.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI68.1
Support$26.29
Resistance$32.18
MA 20$29.78
MA 50$29.34
MA 200$26.74
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.88

Valuation

Target Price$30.50
Upside/Downside-3.94%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.14%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.33
Volatility26.47%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.