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FXNC:NASDAQFirst National Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time

$27.82

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

First National Corporation trades at $27.82, barely below its 20‑day SMA of $27.38 and sits in a neutral technical zone, with a bullish MACD histogram (+0.05) and a modest RSI of 54 indicating no immediate overbought pressure. Volatility remains high at 26% over the past 30 days, yet its beta of roughly 0.6 suggests the stock moves less than the broader market, tempering systematic risk. Fundamentally, the company delivers solid earnings (EPS $2.32) and a healthy operating margin of 31%, while maintaining a low debt profile and a dividend yield of 2.44% backed by a modest 28% payout ratio.
The DCF‑derived fair value of $60.37 points to a substantial undervaluation relative to the current price, even though the analyst‑based upside estimate is modest at ~2.4%. Combined with steady revenue growth of 10.6% and a strong cash position, the stock presents an attractive value play for income‑focused investors seeking exposure to regional banking with limited market volatility.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering near short‑term support at $26.36
  • Neutral technical trend with modest bullish MACD signal
  • High recent volatility and decreasing volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued DCF fair value versus current market price
  • Consistent revenue growth and strong operating margins
  • Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust cash position and low leverage
  • Stable dividend policy supporting income investors
  • Long‑term valuation gap offering upside potential

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth10.60%
Profit Margin23.56%
P/E Ratio12.0
ROE11.75%
ROA1.02%
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$28.0M
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI54.0
Support$26.36
Resistance$29.35
MA 20$27.38
MA 50$27.45
MA 200$25.20
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Fair Value$60.37
Target Price$28.50
Upside/Downside2.44%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.44%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.61
Volatility26.00%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.