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FVC:NASDAQFirst Trust Dorsey Wright Dynamic Focus 5 ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-05 - not real-time

$35.17

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The ETF is trading just below its 20‑day SMA (35.25) at $35.17, while sitting well under the 50‑day (36.85) and 200‑day (36.34) averages, indicating short‑term weakness but room for a bounce. RSI at 45.4 points to a neutral momentum stance, and the MACD histogram turning positive with a bullish signal line suggests early upward pressure. Volume is on an increasing trend, supporting the potential for price appreciation, though the 30‑day volatility of 23% signals a relatively choppy environment. The fund’s beta of 0.54 implies lower sensitivity to market swings, and a modest YTD return of 3.46% coupled with a 2.48% dividend yield adds income appeal. Despite a recent max drawdown of –13.3%, the expense ratio of 0.87% is in line with peers, and the “Extreme Greed” reading (78.8) reflects a broadly optimistic market sentiment.
Liquidity appears limited, with daily trading volume around 1,874 shares versus a 10‑day average of 15,010, raising some execution concerns. However, the fund’s zero tracking error and no premium/discount to NAV reduce tracking risk. Overall, the blend of tactical allocation flexibility, attractive yield, and low market correlation supports a cautiously positive outlook, especially for investors comfortable with moderate volatility and seeking dividend income.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price below short‑term SMA suggests upside potential
  • bullish MACD crossover indicates early momentum
  • increasing volume supports price support

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • moderate YTD gain of 3.46% adds price appreciation
  • 2.48% dividend yield provides income
  • low beta (0.54) reduces market volatility exposure

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • tactical allocation offers sector flexibility
  • attractive dividend yield of 2.48%
  • reasonable expense ratio of 0.87% enhances net returns

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio0.87%
AUM$103.5M
Inception Date2016-03-17
Avg Daily Volume15,010
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield2.48%

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI45.4
Support$33.81
Resistance$36.69
MA 20$35.25
MA 50$36.85
MA 200$36.34
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Risk Assessment

Beta0.54
Volatility23.05%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.