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FV:NASDAQFirst Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-05 - not real-time

$60.99

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The ETF is trading at $60.99, just below its 20‑day SMA of 61.19 and well under the 50‑day SMA of 63.98, indicating short‑term pressure. However, the MACD histogram is positive (0.09) and the MACD line sits above its signal line, delivering a bullish signal. RSI at 45.2 suggests the fund is neither overbought nor oversold, while the price comfortably sits above the identified support at $58.33 and below resistance at $63.77, framing a modest upside range.
Fund fundamentals & market context: With a low expense ratio of 0.89% and zero tracking error, the fund tracks its strategy tightly. Volatility over the past 30 days is elevated at 23.1%, and the max drawdown of –13.5% points to moderate downside risk. Beta hovers around 1.0, implying market‑like sensitivity, while the Fear & Greed Index at 78.8 signals "Extreme Greed" in the broader market. YTD return is modest at +3.86% and the fund offers a modest dividend yield of 0.6%. No material news specifically affecting FV was identified in the recent headlines.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term SMA but bullish MACD signal
  • Support level at $58.33 provides downside cushion
  • Elevated 30‑day volatility (23%)

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Potential upside to resistance $63.77
  • Low expense ratio and zero tracking error
  • Market sentiment skewed toward greed, favoring risk‑on assets

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Mid‑cap blend exposure offers diversification
  • Historical 3‑yr annual return ~11% aligns with growth expectations
  • Beta near 1 suggests market‑aligned performance over time

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio0.89%
AUM$3.6B
Inception Date2014-03-05
Avg Daily Volume138,920
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield0.60%

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI45.2
Support$58.33
Resistance$63.77
MA 20$61.19
MA 50$63.98
MA 200$62.22
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Risk Assessment

Beta0.97
Volatility23.10%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.