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FSR:JSEFirstRand Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

ZAC 9,078.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

FirstRand Limited is trading at 9,078 ZAc, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 9,508.9 and 50‑day SMA of 9,319.0, signalling a short‑term bullish bias. The 30‑day volatility of 31.2% and a low beta of 0.38 suggest price swings are notable but the stock moves less than the market overall. Momentum indicators are mixed: the RSI sits at 43 (neutral) while the MACD histogram is negative, indicating bearish pressure on the upside. Volume is on an increasing trend, supporting the current move toward the 10,084 resistance level, though the nearest support at 8,506 provides a cushion. Institutional owners hold roughly 50% of the shares, underscoring strong stakeholder confidence. Despite a forward PE of 9.55—well below the industry average of 17.38—the price‑to‑book ratio is astronomically high at 209×, hinting at a valuation premium that may be hard to justify. The dividend yield of 5.86% is attractive, but a payout ratio of 58% combined with negative operating cash flow raises questions about sustainability. Revenue growth of 9.9% and a solid operating margin of 44.2% provide earnings upside, yet cash generation concerns temper the long‑term outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support with bullish SMA alignment
  • Bearish MACD histogram suggesting limited upside
  • Increasing volume supporting current trend

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • PE below industry average offering valuation upside
  • Strong dividend yield attracting income investors
  • Significant institutional ownership providing stability

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High price‑to‑book ratio limiting upside potential
  • Negative operating cash flow questioning dividend sustainability
  • Regulatory environment for banks adding uncertainty

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.90%
Profit Margin32.78%
P/E Ratio12.1
ROE19.85%
ROA1.81%
P/B Ratio209.3
Op. Cash FlowZAC-106978000896
Industry P/E17.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI43.0
SupportZAC 8,506.00
ResistanceZAC 10,084.00
MA 20ZAC 9,508.90
MA 50ZAC 9,319.04
MA 200ZAC 8,237.39
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index80.54

Valuation

Target PriceZAC 10,299.56
Upside/Downside13.46%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.86%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.38
Volatility31.18%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.