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FRMEP:NASDAQFirst Merchants Corporation - Depository Shares, each representing a 1/100th interest in a share of 7.50% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, A Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-16 - not real-time

$25.17

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

First Merchants Corp (FRMEP) is trading at $25.17, slightly below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages of $25.12, $25.50 and $25.74, indicating a short‑term bearish bias. The 14‑day RSI sits at 44.96, suggesting neutral momentum without clear oversold conditions. A bullish MACD histogram (+0.03) and a MACD line that has crossed above its signal line point to potential upside despite the overall bearish trend. Volume is trending higher, supporting the possibility of a breakout from the $25 support level. Fundamentally, the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 6.6 versus an industry average of 17.1, presenting a substantial valuation discount. The dividend yield of 7.45% is exceptionally high, but the payout ratio is roughly 49% of earnings, raising questions about long‑term sustainability.
Operating margins are healthy at 22.6% and profit margins reach 31.2%, yet revenue has contracted 2.5% year‑over‑year, signaling modest growth pressure. The bank carries $1.69 B of debt against $320 M of cash, and a near‑zero beta (‑0.01) suggests limited market‑wide price sensitivity. Thirty‑day volatility of 8.36% is moderate, but daily trading volume averages only about 1,200 shares, indicating elevated liquidity risk. Given the regional banking sector’s regulatory and credit environment, sector and regulatory risks are assessed as medium to high. Overall, the combination of deep valuation discount, strong dividend, and improving technical momentum makes the stock attractive for value‑oriented investors, provided they can tolerate the liquidity and earnings‑growth concerns. Investors should monitor earnings trends, debt levels, and any shifts in macro‑banking sentiment before committing capital.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD crossover
  • Price hovering near $25 support
  • Increasing trading volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • P/E far below industry average
  • High dividend yield
  • Strong operating margins

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue contraction
  • Elevated debt relative to cash
  • Liquidity constraints

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-2.50%
Profit Margin31.17%
P/E Ratio6.6
ROE7.95%
ROA1.01%
P/B Ratio0.6
Op. Cash Flow$280.5M
Industry P/E17.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI45.0
Support$25.00
Resistance$25.44
MA 20$25.12
MA 50$25.50
MA 200$25.74
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.13

Valuation

GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield7.45%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.01
Volatility8.36%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.