FRME:NASDAQFirst Merchants Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-23 - not real-time
$40.14
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
First Merchants (FRME) is trading at $40.14, comfortably above its 20‑day (40.07), 50‑day (39.50) and 200‑day (38.78) moving averages, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. Technical momentum remains neutral with an RSI of 52 and a bearish MACD histogram, suggesting caution as the price hovers near the $41.09 resistance level. The stock offers an attractive 3.69% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 42%, and recent news points to a projected dividend increase of roughly 2.8%, extending a 14‑year streak of dividend growth. Valuation metrics show a forward PE of 8.8 versus an industry average PE of 16.8, and a price‑to‑book below 1.0, implying relative cheapness, yet the DCF‑derived fair value of $18.80 is far below the current price, flagging potential overvaluation. Fundamental profitability is solid with a 31% net margin and a 22.6% operating margin, though revenue has slipped 2.5% year‑over‑year. Overall, FRME presents a blend of value and modest growth, supported by strong dividend fundamentals but tempered by mixed technical signals and a sizable gap between market price and intrinsic DCF estimates.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near resistance at $41.09
- Bearish MACD histogram
- High dividend yield with upcoming increase
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to peers (PE 11.8 vs industry 16.8)
- Stable cash flow and strong operating margins
- Potential upside to analyst median target of $48
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Consistent dividend growth and sustainable payout
- Moderate sector and regulatory risk for regional banks
- Solid balance sheet with ample cash despite debt levels
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-2.50%
Profit Margin31.17%
P/E Ratio11.8
ROE7.95%
ROA1.01%
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$280.5M
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI52.2
Support$38.77
Resistance$41.09
MA 20$40.07
MA 50$39.50
MA 200$38.78
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Fair Value$18.80
Target Price$47.60
Upside/Downside18.58%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.69%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.89
Volatility18.10%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.