We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

FRME:NASDAQFirst Merchants Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-23 - not real-time

$40.14

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

First Merchants (FRME) is trading at $40.14, comfortably above its 20‑day (40.07), 50‑day (39.50) and 200‑day (38.78) moving averages, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. Technical momentum remains neutral with an RSI of 52 and a bearish MACD histogram, suggesting caution as the price hovers near the $41.09 resistance level. The stock offers an attractive 3.69% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 42%, and recent news points to a projected dividend increase of roughly 2.8%, extending a 14‑year streak of dividend growth. Valuation metrics show a forward PE of 8.8 versus an industry average PE of 16.8, and a price‑to‑book below 1.0, implying relative cheapness, yet the DCF‑derived fair value of $18.80 is far below the current price, flagging potential overvaluation. Fundamental profitability is solid with a 31% net margin and a 22.6% operating margin, though revenue has slipped 2.5% year‑over‑year. Overall, FRME presents a blend of value and modest growth, supported by strong dividend fundamentals but tempered by mixed technical signals and a sizable gap between market price and intrinsic DCF estimates.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near resistance at $41.09
  • Bearish MACD histogram
  • High dividend yield with upcoming increase

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to peers (PE 11.8 vs industry 16.8)
  • Stable cash flow and strong operating margins
  • Potential upside to analyst median target of $48

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent dividend growth and sustainable payout
  • Moderate sector and regulatory risk for regional banks
  • Solid balance sheet with ample cash despite debt levels

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-2.50%
Profit Margin31.17%
P/E Ratio11.8
ROE7.95%
ROA1.01%
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$280.5M
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI52.2
Support$38.77
Resistance$41.09
MA 20$40.07
MA 50$39.50
MA 200$38.78
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Fair Value$18.80
Target Price$47.60
Upside/Downside18.58%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.69%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.89
Volatility18.10%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.