FRES:LSEFresnillo PLC Analysis

Fresnillo plc (FRES) is trading at 3,406 p, comfortably above its nearest support of 3,347 p and well below the 20‑day SMA of 3,840 p, indicating a short‑term price cushion. The RSI of 39.5 suggests the stock is edging toward oversold territory, while the MACD remains bearish, though the broader trend is still classified as bullish and volume is increasing. Recent headlines note record 2025 results with gold output beating guidance, yet a pull‑back in gold and silver prices has pressured the share price, and UBS trimmed its target to 4,000 p amid concerns over higher growth spending.
Fundamentally, the company delivers robust margins (gross 69%, operating 55%, profit 30%) and a 30.7% revenue growth year‑over‑year, backed by strong cash generation (free cash flow > £1.7 bn) and a modest payout ratio of 25%. The DCF fair‑value estimate of 9,170 p points to a substantial undervaluation, with an implied upside of well over 150%, while the dividend yield of 2.65% appears sustainable given the low payout and solid balance sheet.