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FPI:NYSEFarmland Partners Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-04 - not real-time

$11.43

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Farmland Partners (FPI) is trading at $11.43, just below its 20‑day SMA of $11.55 and 50‑day SMA of $11.77, while remaining above the 200‑day SMA of $10.83, indicating a short‑term pullback within a longer‑term uptrend. The RSI of 47.5 and a bearish MACD histogram suggest neutral momentum, with the price perched near the $10.77 support level and well below the $12.82 resistance. Valuation appears attractive: the trailing P/E of 18.7 is well under the REIT specialty industry average of 32, and the P/B of 1.06 is near parity, while the dividend yield of 3.15% offers a solid income cushion.
Fundamentally, the company posted strong margins (gross 80%, operating 60%, profit 61%) and reported higher AFFO ($0.26 Q/Q) despite a 1.8% revenue decline. However, free cash flow is deeply negative at -$46.9 M and debt stands at $161 M, yielding a high debt‑to‑equity of ~30, which raises leverage concerns. Recent news highlighted a $17 M impairment on West Coast assets and a downgrade from Raymond James, adding pressure to the outlook despite the dividend’s sustainability (payout ratio ~39%).

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support with limited upside to $12.81 resistance
  • Neutral momentum indicators (RSI, MACD)
  • Attractive dividend yield relative to valuation

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • High leverage and negative free cash flow
  • Recent $17 M impairment and analyst downgrade
  • Sustained dividend payout but earnings pressure

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Land asset appreciation potential and strong operating margins
  • Undervalued relative to industry P/E and P/B metrics
  • Stable dividend income supporting total return

Key Metrics & Analysis

REIT Metrics

P/FFO29.10849902444623

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI47.5
Support$10.77
Resistance$12.81
MA 20$11.55
MA 50$11.77
MA 200$10.83
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Risk Assessment

Beta0.54
Volatility32.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.