FNWB:NASDAQFirst Northwest Bancorp Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-19 - not real-time
$10.03
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The stock is trading just above its 20‑day simple moving average, which sits marginally higher than the 50‑day average, indicating a modest bullish bias, while the 200‑day average remains well below current levels. RSI hovers near the midpoint, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but the MACD histogram has turned negative, signaling short‑term momentum weakness. Price is perched near a key support around the $9.5 level and faces resistance just under $10.9, with a decreasing volume trend that could foreshadow reduced buying pressure. Despite a low beta, the 30‑day volatility is elevated, and the market sentiment index reads “Extreme Greed,” implying a potential disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals.
On the fundamentals side, revenue has surged by over 60% year‑over‑year, yet earnings have collapsed to near‑zero, with the latest quarter reporting a net income of only a few thousand dollars. The dividend yield of roughly 3% is supported by a modest payout ratio, and the DCF‑derived fair value sits well above the current price, hinting at substantial upside. Compared with peers, the price‑to‑earnings multiple is slightly higher than the industry average, while the price‑to‑book ratio remains deep in discount territory, underscoring a mixed value‑growth profile.
On the fundamentals side, revenue has surged by over 60% year‑over‑year, yet earnings have collapsed to near‑zero, with the latest quarter reporting a net income of only a few thousand dollars. The dividend yield of roughly 3% is supported by a modest payout ratio, and the DCF‑derived fair value sits well above the current price, hinting at substantial upside. Compared with peers, the price‑to‑earnings multiple is slightly higher than the industry average, while the price‑to‑book ratio remains deep in discount territory, underscoring a mixed value‑growth profile.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Recent earnings surprise and near‑zero EPS
- Bearish MACD histogram despite overall bullish trend
- Price hovering close to technical support with decreasing volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth outpacing peers
- Dividend yield with low payout ratio supporting cash flow
- Significant valuation gap between DCF fair value and market price
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend backed by solid cash reserves
- Low beta indicating defensive characteristics in a volatile market
- Long‑term undervaluation reflected in price‑to‑book and upside potential
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth66.40%
Profit Margin7.23%
P/E Ratio18.2
ROE3.20%
ROA0.22%
P/B Ratio0.6
Op. Cash Flow$19.9M
Industry P/E16.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI47.5
Support$9.50
Resistance$10.88
MA 20$10.16
MA 50$9.95
MA 200$9.32
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.14
Valuation
Fair Value$28.74
Target Price$13.25
Upside/Downside32.10%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.90%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.61
Volatility25.72%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.