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FFIN:NASDAQFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-02 - not real-time

$29.98

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The stock trades well below its discounted cash flow fair value, implying significant upside. The 20‑day SMA sits below the 50‑day SMA, confirming a short‑term downtrend, while the MACD histogram has turned positive, suggesting emerging bullish momentum. RSI hovers near the midpoint, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Volatility is elevated at over 30% for the past 30 days, but beta is sub‑1, tempering market‑wide swings. The dividend yield of roughly 2.5% coupled with a payout ratio under 45% points to sustainability.
Recent insider buying and an expanded share‑repurchase program reinforce confidence from management. Revenue is growing at double‑digit rates, and operating margins exceed 55%, supporting earnings strength. The bank's balance sheet shows ample cash relative to modest debt, and a low debt‑to‑equity ratio. The sector faces moderate regulatory scrutiny and regional banking pressures, but the company’s diversified loan portfolio mitigates concentration risk. Given the technical and fundamental backdrop, the stock appears attractive for investors seeking both income and appreciation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Technical bounce near support with positive MACD histogram
  • Attractive dividend yield and sustainable payout
  • Insider buying and share‑repurchase authorization

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth and strong operating margins
  • Leadership succession plan providing continuity
  • Undervaluation relative to DCF fair value

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Stable cash generation and low leverage
  • Consistent dividend and compounding potential
  • Diversified loan portfolio reducing sector concentration risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth14.50%
Profit Margin42.05%
P/E Ratio16.9
ROE14.39%
ROA1.72%
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$299.4M
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI48.8
Support$28.12
Resistance$31.04
MA 20$29.51
MA 50$31.38
MA 200$33.11
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index77.61

Valuation

Fair Value$37.30
Target Price$36.40
Upside/Downside21.41%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.55%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.75
Volatility31.09%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.