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FHN:NYSEFirst Horizon Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-03 - not real-time

$23.18

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

First Horizon (FHN) is trading at $23.18, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of $31.19, implying roughly an 18% upside. Relative valuation looks attractive: a trailing P/E of 12.4 versus the industry average of 16.6 and a price‑to‑book of 1.32 suggest the stock is undervalued on a pure numbers basis. The company posted a robust 23.7% revenue growth year‑over‑year and maintains strong operating (43%) and profit margins (29%), reinforcing a solid earnings foundation. Dividend yield sits at 2.96% with a modest 32% payout ratio, backed by ample cash ($4.95B) that exceeds total debt ($5.35B), indicating the dividend is likely sustainable. Technical signals are mixed: the 20‑day SMA (22.38) is just below the current price, the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI is neutral at 54, while volume is trending down and volatility is elevated (~30% over 30 days, beta ~1.0), pointing to a neutral short‑term trend but room for upside if buying pressure returns. Recent news highlights a 7% revenue uplift in 2025, reaffirmed buy rating from Citi, and active investor outreach at major conferences, but also notes insider sales and a new preferred‑stock issuance, which could temper sentiment. Overall, the fundamentals and valuation tilt toward a buy, yet the market’s cautious tone and moderate risk profile advise a measured approach.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Neutral technical stance with decreasing volume
  • Elevated short‑term volatility
  • Recent insider sales creating modest downside pressure

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation upside vs DCF fair value
  • Strong earnings margins and revenue growth
  • Sustainable dividend supported by strong cash position

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent profitability and solid ROE
  • Undervalued relative to peers and industry averages
  • Strategic positioning in regional banking with diversified service lines

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth23.70%
Profit Margin29.28%
P/E Ratio12.4
ROE10.94%
ROA1.20%
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$628.0M
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI54.0
Support$21.24
Resistance$23.26
MA 20$22.38
MA 50$23.76
MA 200$22.68
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Valuation

Fair Value$31.19
Target Price$27.31
Upside/Downside17.80%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.96%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.03
Volatility29.87%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.