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FFBC:NASDAQFirst Financial Bancorp. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-11 - not real-time

$31.55

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) is trading well above its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages, with a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI of 62 indicating continued upward momentum. The stock sits near its recent resistance around $31.74, supported by a solid $29.5 floor, while volume has been trending upward, reinforcing the bullish bias. Valuation metrics further enhance the case: a trailing P/E of 11 is well below the industry average of 16.5, the price‑to‑book hovers just above 1.1, and a dividend yield of 3.2% offers attractive income, all on a backdrop of a 32% year‑over‑year revenue surge and a healthy 37% operating margin.
Risk‑adjusted returns appear favorable as FFBC’s beta of 0.84 signals lower market sensitivity, and 30‑day volatility near 22% is moderate for a regional bank. The balance sheet shows ample cash exceeding debt, and a modest payout ratio of 35% suggests the dividend is sustainable. Geographic concentration in the Midwest and a regulated banking environment introduce sector and regulatory considerations, but the company’s strong capital position and consistent cash flow mitigate these concerns, positioning FFBC as an undervalued, blend‑style investment with upside potential.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near short‑term resistance with limited upside
  • Bullish technical setup but recent rally may pause
  • Strong dividend yield provides downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to DCF and peer P/E multiples
  • Sustained revenue growth and robust operating margins
  • Increasing volume and bullish MACD support continued appreciation

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Stable dividend with low payout ratio ensures income longevity
  • Low beta and moderate volatility suit defensive portfolios
  • Strong cash position and low debt enhance resilience in a regulated sector

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth32.30%
Profit Margin30.39%
P/E Ratio11.1
ROE10.24%
ROA1.35%
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow$830.7M
Industry P/E16.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI62.3
Support$29.50
Resistance$31.74
MA 20$30.50
MA 50$29.98
MA 200$27.23
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index84.29

Valuation

Fair Value$199.60
Target Price$33.43
Upside/Downside5.95%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.17%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.84
Volatility21.94%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.