FER:NASDAQFerrovial SE Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-02 - not real-time
$66.47
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Ferrovial is trading near the upper end of its recent range, with the short‑term moving average sitting above the longer‑term average, suggesting modest upward pressure. The RSI hovers in the middle of its band, indicating neither extreme buying nor selling pressure, while the MACD histogram is positive, offering a bullish tilt despite a neutral overall trend. Volume is on the rise, supporting the price action and hinting at growing investor interest. The stock carries a beta below one, pointing to lower volatility than the broader market, yet the 30‑day price swings remain elevated, reflecting sector‑specific uncertainty. Financially, the company posts strong operating margins and robust cash generation, but the valuation multiples are well above industry averages, raising concerns about price justification. Debt levels are high relative to equity, though abundant cash reserves provide a cushion. The dividend yield is modest and the payout ratio approaches three‑quarters of earnings, prompting questions about long‑term sustainability. Recent contract wins and solid North American highway growth underpin earnings optimism, but analyst sentiment has softened, with a notable downgrade to hold.
Overall, the blend of solid fundamentals, elevated valuation, and mixed technical signals suggests a cautious stance: investors may benefit from monitoring upcoming earnings and cash‑flow trends while weighing the dividend risk and debt profile against the company's infrastructure moat.
Overall, the blend of solid fundamentals, elevated valuation, and mixed technical signals suggests a cautious stance: investors may benefit from monitoring upcoming earnings and cash‑flow trends while weighing the dividend risk and debt profile against the company's infrastructure moat.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Neutral technical outlook with price near resistance
- Elevated valuation relative to peers
- Dividend payout ratio nearing sustainability limits
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth driven by highway and airport segments
- Strong operating cash flow supporting earnings
- Positive analyst price targets indicating upside potential
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term infrastructure asset base with stable cash flows
- Strategic expansion in North America reducing geographic concentration
- Ability to service debt through robust cash generation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth5.70%
Profit Margin9.22%
P/E Ratio47.5
ROE14.32%
ROA2.37%
Debt/Equity140.01
P/B Ratio7.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.9B
Free Cash Flow$321.4M
Industry P/E28.9
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI52.7
Support$61.29
Resistance$67.27
MA 20$64.33
MA 50$68.19
MA 200$61.59
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8
Valuation
Target Price$72.31
Upside/Downside8.78%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.56%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.71
Volatility32.43%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.