FEBZ:CBOETrueShares Structured Outcome (February) ETF Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time
$36.70
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
FEBZ is trading at $36.70, essentially hugging its calculated support level of $36.70 while sitting just below the 20‑day SMA of $37.50 and the 50‑day SMA of $37.78. The RSI of 34.7 indicates modest oversold pressure, yet the MACD remains in bearish territory with the line under the signal, suggesting limited upside momentum. Volume has been rising, supporting the price’s ability to defend the support zone. The fund’s YTD return of 23.2% and a dividend yield of 3.19% provide attractive income in a market characterized by a “Greed” sentiment (FGI 72.9).
However, the ETF’s 30‑day volatility of 10.8% and a max drawdown of roughly 10.8% signal that price swings can be meaningful, while the beta of 0.73 points to lower correlation with broader equity markets. With zero tracking error, no premium/discount, and an expense ratio of 0.79%, the cost structure is modest, but the limited average daily volume (~3 k shares) introduces a medium liquidity risk. Overall, FEBZ sits in a neutral technical trend, and investors should weigh the income benefit against the modest downside risk before positioning.
However, the ETF’s 30‑day volatility of 10.8% and a max drawdown of roughly 10.8% signal that price swings can be meaningful, while the beta of 0.73 points to lower correlation with broader equity markets. With zero tracking error, no premium/discount, and an expense ratio of 0.79%, the cost structure is modest, but the limited average daily volume (~3 k shares) introduces a medium liquidity risk. Overall, FEBZ sits in a neutral technical trend, and investors should weigh the income benefit against the modest downside risk before positioning.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price is at technical support with bearish MACD
- Increasing volume supports current level
- Oversold RSI suggests limited downside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Potential move toward resistance at $38.00
- Attractive 3.19% dividend yield
- Low beta and zero tracking error provide stability
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Consistent income generation from dividend
- Lower market correlation (beta 0.73)
- Modest expense ratio and no premium/discount risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio0.79%
AUM$14.0M
Inception Date2021-01-29
Avg Daily Volume1,950
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield3.19%
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI34.7
Support$36.70
Resistance$38.00
MA 20$37.50
MA 50$37.78
MA 200$37.45
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Risk Assessment
Beta0.73
Volatility10.82%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.