FDUS:NASDAQFidus Investment Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-11 - not real-time
$18.80
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
FDUS trades at $18.80, just above its 20‑day SMA ($18.73) and 50‑day SMA ($18.59) but below the 200‑day SMA ($19.34), indicating a short‑term bounce within a longer‑term downtrend.
Valuation metrics are compelling – a trailing P/E of 8.3 versus an industry average of 16.5 and a P/B of 0.96 – yet the company carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (≈90%) and negative operating cash flow, raising questions about the sustainability of its 11.8% dividend yield (payout ratio 94%). Recent news highlights a “blowout” Q1 2026 earnings beat and a scheduled earnings call, which could act as a catalyst. With volatility at 32% over the past 30 days and a beta of 0.68, price swings are pronounced but market‑wide moves have limited impact. Investors should weigh the attractive yield and undervalued multiples against leverage, liquidity constraints (average daily volume ~20k vs market cap $713M) and the bearish MACD histogram.
Valuation metrics are compelling – a trailing P/E of 8.3 versus an industry average of 16.5 and a P/B of 0.96 – yet the company carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (≈90%) and negative operating cash flow, raising questions about the sustainability of its 11.8% dividend yield (payout ratio 94%). Recent news highlights a “blowout” Q1 2026 earnings beat and a scheduled earnings call, which could act as a catalyst. With volatility at 32% over the past 30 days and a beta of 0.68, price swings are pronounced but market‑wide moves have limited impact. Investors should weigh the attractive yield and undervalued multiples against leverage, liquidity constraints (average daily volume ~20k vs market cap $713M) and the bearish MACD histogram.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering near short‑term support at $18.25
- Bearish MACD histogram suggesting limited upside
- Upcoming Q1 earnings release could clarify momentum
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation discount (P/E ~8 vs industry ~16)
- High dividend yield attractive for income seekers
- DCF fair value (~$34) implies material upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Stable business model focused on middle‑market investments
- Potential for earnings growth (30% revenue growth YoY)
- Long‑term undervaluation relative to peers despite leverage
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth30.20%
Profit Margin49.51%
P/E Ratio8.3
ROE11.64%
ROA5.45%
Debt/Equity90.03
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$-129406000
Free Cash Flow$53.5M
Industry P/E16.5
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI52.0
Support$18.25
Resistance$19.16
MA 20$18.73
MA 50$18.59
MA 200$19.34
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index82.89
Valuation
Fair Value$34.17
Target Price$21.50
Upside/Downside14.36%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield11.80%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.68
Volatility32.70%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.