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FDUS:NASDAQFidus Investment Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-02 - not real-time

$17.75

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Fidus Investment Corp (FDUS) is trading at $17.75, just above its 20‑day SMA (17.67) but still below the 50‑day (18.36) and 200‑day (19.88) averages, indicating short‑term momentum but a longer‑term bearish backdrop. The RSI sits near 49 and the MACD histogram is modestly positive, suggesting neutral to mildly bullish technical bias, while volume is increasing and price sits between the calculated support ($16.87) and resistance ($18.54) levels. Fundamentals show a low PE of 7.65 versus an industry average of 16.6 and a sub‑1.0 price‑to‑book (0.91), pointing to relative value, yet the DCF fair value of $10.15 is far below the market price, highlighting an intrinsic overvaluation. The dividend yield is exceptionally high at 12.3% with a payout ratio of 93%, but a debt‑to‑equity of 86.8, negative operating cash flow, and a large debt balance raise concerns about dividend sustainability. Recent earnings beat (EPS $0.52 vs. $0.48 consensus) and a declared quarterly dividend of $0.52 provide short‑term positive news, but the company’s leverage and cash flow profile suggest caution.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price approaching resistance with limited upside
  • High dividend payout ratio versus cash flow
  • Intrinsic overvaluation per DCF

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Strong earnings beat and attractive dividend yield
  • Valuation still below analyst targets (~$21)
  • Elevated leverage balanced by steady earnings

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained high debt‑to‑equity and negative operating cash flow
  • Declining forward EPS and potential dividend cuts
  • Price significantly above intrinsic fair value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.50%
Profit Margin52.87%
P/E Ratio7.7
ROE11.79%
ROA5.20%
Debt/Equity86.81
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$-147004992
Free Cash Flow$42.1M
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI49.0
Support$16.87
Resistance$18.54
MA 20$17.67
MA 50$18.36
MA 200$19.88
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Valuation

Fair Value$10.15
Target Price$21.40
Upside/Downside20.56%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield12.31%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.77
Volatility30.28%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.