FDTX:NASDAQFidelity Disruptive Technology ETF Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-02 - not real-time
$37.77
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
FDTX is trading at $37.77, comfortably below its 20‑day ($37.91), 50‑day ($38.76) and 200‑day ($39.77) simple moving averages, indicating a short‑term bearish bias. The RSI sits near the midpoint at 48.9 and the MACD histogram is slightly negative, reinforcing the bearish technical outlook, while the price is perched just beneath the identified resistance at $39.41 and above the near‑term support of $34.84. Volatility remains elevated at 32% over the past 30 days and the fund’s beta of 1.32 suggests it will swing more than the broader market, contributing to a higher risk profile. Despite a modest expense ratio of 0.5% and a tracking error of zero, the ETF has delivered a negative YTD return of -4.80% and a modest 3‑year annualized return of 18.2%, reflecting the broader tech sector’s recent turbulence. There is no material news specifically affecting FDTX, so the outlook must be derived from the quantitative picture alone. Investors should weigh the current bearish technicals and heightened volatility against the long‑term growth potential of disruptive technology themes.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators (price below SMAs, negative MACD)
- Elevated short‑term volatility and beta
- Proximity to resistance level limiting upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Potential rebound in technology sector fundamentals
- Reasonable expense ratio and zero tracking error
- Valuation (PE ~36) offering modest upside if earnings improve
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Secular growth tailwinds for disruptive technology
- Diversified exposure to high‑growth innovators
- Low tracking error and manageable expense ratio supporting long‑run returns
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio0.50%
AUM$181.8M
Inception Date2020-04-16
Avg Daily Volume16,300
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield0.01%
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI48.9
Support$34.84
Resistance$39.41
MA 20$37.91
MA 50$38.76
MA 200$39.77
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8
Risk Assessment
Beta1.32
Volatility32.39%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.