EXPN:LSEExperian PLC Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
Latest Price
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Experian (EXPN.L) trades at £2,791, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA (£2,626) but still below the 50‑day (£2,877) and 200‑day (£3,474) averages, signalling a short‑term pull‑back within a longer‑term downtrend. The RSI sits at 55.6, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is positive (+40) and the signal line flags a bullish crossover, suggesting upside potential toward the nearby resistance at £2,851. Fundamentally, the company delivers 12% YoY revenue growth, a strong ROE of 27%, and margins (gross 41%, operating 25%) that outpace many peers, with a trailing PE of 25 versus an industry average of 29.5, positioning it as relatively cheap on earnings. However, the balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 105% and a modest cash buffer (£312m), raising concerns about leverage despite solid free cash flow of £1.32bn. Analysts are overwhelmingly positive (strong‑buy) with a median 12‑month target of £4,228, implying >50% upside, while the DCF model values the stock at £2,766, only slightly below the current price, and the Fear & Greed Index reflects “Extreme Greed,” hinting at heightened market optimism.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearKey Factors
- Price hovering near resistance with bearish longer‑term trend
- Bullish MACD crossover offering limited upside
- High 30‑day volatility (~43%) increasing short‑term risk
Medium Term
1–3 yearsKey Factors
- Strong earnings growth and robust margins
- PE discount to industry and attractive forward PE of 18.4
- Analyst consensus (strong‑buy) and >50% upside to target price
Long Term
> 3 yearsKey Factors
- Sustainable dividend yield (1.7%) with a 42% payout ratio
- High ROE and consistent free cash flow supporting debt service
- Diversified global footprint mitigating single‑region exposure
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Technical Analysis
Valuation
Risk Assessment
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.