EXPD:NYSEExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
$141.37
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Expeditors delivered a modest earnings beat this quarter, posting EPS of $1.49 versus the Zacks consensus of $1.46 (+2.06%), but revenue slipped 11.3% year‑over‑year. The company also announced a new share‑repurchase program, which adds a modest catalyst to the price action. At a market price of $141.37, the stock sits well above the DCF‑derived fair value of $88.75 and shows a negative upside/downside metric of -1.5%, suggesting limited near‑term upside. Technical gauges are mixed: the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs (≈$147.8 and $154.6) sit above the current price, the RSI is at 38 indicating near‑oversold conditions, and the MACD remains bearish, while volume trends are decreasing and overall volatility is high at 54% over the past 30 days.
Fundamentally, EXPD boasts a strong ROE of 35% and a solid cash position that comfortably exceeds its debt load, supporting a sustainable dividend yield of 1.06% with a low payout ratio of 26%. The forward PE of ~22 is below the industry average of 29.4, though the price‑to‑book ratio of 8 is elevated. Beta is modest at 0.81, implying lower market sensitivity, and analysts collectively rate the stock as a “hold” with a median target of $140.5, essentially flat to the current price.
Fundamentally, EXPD boasts a strong ROE of 35% and a solid cash position that comfortably exceeds its debt load, supporting a sustainable dividend yield of 1.06% with a low payout ratio of 26%. The forward PE of ~22 is below the industry average of 29.4, though the price‑to‑book ratio of 8 is elevated. Beta is modest at 0.81, implying lower market sensitivity, and analysts collectively rate the stock as a “hold” with a median target of $140.5, essentially flat to the current price.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Earnings beat but revenue contraction
- Bearish technical indicators (price below SMA20/50, MACD)
- High short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong ROE and cash generation
- Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
- Share repurchase program supporting price
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Durable logistics business model with global footprint
- Low debt relative to cash and solid balance sheet
- Attractive valuation relative to industry PE
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-3.30%
Profit Margin7.32%
P/E Ratio23.8
ROE35.43%
ROA13.64%
Debt/Equity24.20
P/B Ratio8.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.0B
Free Cash Flow$803.0M
Industry P/E29.4
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI38.1
Support$129.59
Resistance$164.66
MA 20$147.76
MA 50$154.59
MA 200$131.97
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91
Valuation
Fair Value$88.75
Target Price$139.29
Upside/Downside-1.47%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.06%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.81
Volatility54.14%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.