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EVN:ASXEvolution Mining Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-04 - not real-time

A$12.11

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Evolution Mining is trading below its short‑term moving averages and the 200‑day average, yet the MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating early bullish momentum. The RSI sits in a neutral zone and volume has remained stable, suggesting no immediate pressure from sellers. Analyst consensus leans toward a buy, with the discounted cash‑flow model pointing to a fair value substantially higher than the current price, and the dividend yield remains attractive with a modest payout ratio.
Recent corporate updates report solid growth in gold and copper reserves and a fresh exploration success, which dovetail with the broader bullish sentiment in gold miners. Combined with a strong cash‑flow generation and a sustainable dividend, these factors reinforce the upside thesis despite elevated short‑term volatility.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Positive MACD crossover
  • Reserve growth news
  • Attractive dividend yield

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained gold price support
  • Strong operating cash flow
  • Undervaluation relative to DCF

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term commodity demand
  • Robust balance sheet with low leverage
  • Consistent dividend policy

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth37.50%
Profit Margin25.97%
P/E Ratio18.3
ROE26.39%
ROA13.25%
Debt/Equity26.41
P/B Ratio4.4
Op. Cash FlowA$2.4B
Free Cash FlowA$1.2B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI45.5
SupportA$11.27
ResistanceA$13.66
MA 20A$12.44
MA 50A$12.80
MA 200A$12.32
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.75

Valuation

Fair ValueA$20.53
Target PriceA$13.91
Upside/Downside14.90%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.21%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.14
Volatility53.00%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.