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EVN:ASXEvolution Mining Limited analysis

Data as of Sep 16, 2026 - not real-time

Latest price
A$13.27
Risk: medium
7/10Medium risk

Summary

Evolution Mining Limited trades at AUD 13.27, with its moving averages tangled rather than clearly stacked — a neutral trend structure. It has gained 6.0% over the past 30 days. RSI sits at 39.4, which reads as approaching oversold, and MACD momentum is bearish. Price has been bracketed by support at AUD 12.81 and resistance at AUD 16.20.
Valuation screens as fair, on a P/E of 18.2 with no clean sector comparison available. Revenue is growing at 19.2% on a 26.5% profit margin. The 3.20% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
The composite risk read is 7/10, putting it in elevated territory. With 30-day volatility of 46.5%, a beta of 1.06 and a maximum drawdown of 41.7%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 91 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 3/10 conviction.

Top market events

  • The ASX’s second-largest gold miner has rewarded investors with a bumper dividend after mostly sitting on the...
  • CANBERA dpa-AFX - Australia's Evolution Mining Ltd.
  • Evolution Mining ASX:EVN fiscal 2027 gold production guidance met estimates at the midpoint, while

Market outlook

Short term

< 1 year

Neutral

Model confidence2/102 out of 10

Key factors

  • Trading above the 200-day average of 13.22
  • MACD momentum is negative
  • 30-day price change of +6.0%

Medium term

1–3 years

Neutral

Model confidence2/102 out of 10

Key factors

  • Trading above the 200-day average of 13.22
  • 30-day volatility of 46.5%
  • MACD momentum is negative

Long term

> 3 years

Neutral

Model confidence3/103 out of 10

Key factors

  • Profit margin of 26.5% is healthy
  • Revenue growth of +19.2%
  • P/E ratio of 18.2

Key metrics

Financial health

Revenue Growth19.20%
Profit Margin26.54%
P/E Ratio18.2
ROE27.35%
ROA14.66%
Debt/Equity24.77
P/B Ratio4.6
Op. Cash FlowA$2.6B
Free Cash FlowA$1.2B

Technical analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI39.4
SupportA$12.81
ResistanceA$16.20
MA 20A$14.81
MA 50A$13.17
MA 200A$13.22
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.05

Valuation

Fair ValueA$15.30
Target PriceA$13.42
Upside/Downside1.16%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.20%

Risk assessment

Beta1.06
Volatility46.53%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.