EMBC:NASDAQEmbecta Corp. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-11 - not real-time
$3.21
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Embecta Corp. (EMBC) is trading at $3.21, well below its 20‑day ($3.25), 50‑day ($6.12) and 200‑day ($10.78) simple moving averages, indicating a strong bearish bias. The 14‑day RSI of 26.8 suggests the stock is oversold, yet the 30‑day volatility of over 250% and a decreasing volume trend amplify short‑term risk, especially after a recent S&P Global downgrade to “B” and a securities‑fraud investigation that sent the share price down more than 25% in a single session.
Despite these pressures, the DCF‑derived fair value of $23.17 implies an upside of roughly 25% over the current price, and the dividend yield of 14.29% with a modest 31.8% payout ratio is supported by solid operating cash flow of $213.5 M, offering a compelling value proposition if the company can navigate its legal and credit challenges.
Despite these pressures, the DCF‑derived fair value of $23.17 implies an upside of roughly 25% over the current price, and the dividend yield of 14.29% with a modest 31.8% payout ratio is supported by solid operating cash flow of $213.5 M, offering a compelling value proposition if the company can navigate its legal and credit challenges.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price below all major SMAs and bearish technical trend
- Recent credit rating downgrade and securities fraud investigation
- Extreme short‑term volatility and falling volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation upside relative to DCF fair value
- High dividend yield with sustainable payout
- Ongoing legal and credit concerns limiting upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF‑based upside of ~25% and strong cash‑flow generation
- Low price‑to‑sales multiple (0.18) indicating deep value
- Potential turnaround if investigations resolve and credit improves
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-14.40%
Profit Margin10.73%
P/E Ratio1.7
ROA16.84%
P/B Ratio-0.3
Op. Cash Flow$213.5M
Free Cash Flow$195.8M
Industry P/E24.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI26.8
Support$2.77
Resistance$3.54
MA 20$3.25
MA 50$6.12
MA 200$10.78
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index84.59
Valuation
Fair Value$23.17
Target Price$4.00
Upside/Downside24.61%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield14.29%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.84
Volatility256.82%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.