ELPE:ATHEXHELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time
€9.68
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
ELPE is trading comfortably above its 20‑day (≈9.03), 50‑day (≈8.94) and 200‑day (≈8.34) simple moving averages, with a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI hovering near 68, indicating strong momentum without being overbought. Volume is on an upward trend, supporting the technical picture, and the latest earnings call highlighted a 10% year‑on‑year rise in adjusted EBITDA to €1.1 bn, driven by robust refining margins.
Valuation metrics reinforce a potentially attractive entry: the DCF‑derived fair value of roughly €16.5 per share and a trailing P/E of 16.9 are well below the industry average P/E of 22.2, suggesting the stock is undervalued. However, a dividend yield of 4.74% comes with a high payout ratio (~79%) and negative free cash flow, while leverage is elevated (debt‑to‑equity ~120%). These fundamentals temper the upside, especially given sector‑specific commodity and regulatory risks.
Valuation metrics reinforce a potentially attractive entry: the DCF‑derived fair value of roughly €16.5 per share and a trailing P/E of 16.9 are well below the industry average P/E of 22.2, suggesting the stock is undervalued. However, a dividend yield of 4.74% comes with a high payout ratio (~79%) and negative free cash flow, while leverage is elevated (debt‑to‑equity ~120%). These fundamentals temper the upside, especially given sector‑specific commodity and regulatory risks.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (price above SMA, MACD bullish, rising volume)
- Significant EBITDA growth and strong refining margins
- Current price well below DCF fair value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Elevated leverage and negative free cash flow raising dividend sustainability concerns
- Stable but modest revenue growth (≈3.7%)
- High dividend yield offset by payout risk
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Energy transition pressures on integrated oil & gas business
- Valuation gap provides downside protection but upside limited by structural risks
- Low beta suggests limited price volatility but sector‑wide regulatory headwinds
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.70%
Profit Margin1.49%
P/E Ratio17.0
ROE6.45%
ROA3.02%
Debt/Equity119.98
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow€668.5M
Free Cash Flow€-396222496
Industry P/E22.2
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI68.5
Support€8.48
Resistance€9.70
MA 20€9.03
MA 50€8.94
MA 200€8.34
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.5
Valuation
Fair Value€16.50
Target Price€8.89
Upside/Downside-8.19%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.74%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.16
Volatility27.54%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.