ECOPETROL:BVCEcopetrol SA Analysis

Ecopetrol is trading at 2,555 COP, comfortably above its 20‑day (2,320.5), 50‑day (2,238.2) and 200‑day (1,924.35) moving averages, confirming a strong bullish technical backdrop. The MACD line (78.2) sits well above its signal (51.2) and the histogram is positive, while the RSI at 68 signals momentum that is approaching overbought levels. Volume is on an increasing trend, and the price is holding above the near‑term support of 2,150 COP, with resistance capped at 2,595 COP; however, 30‑day volatility is elevated at ~39%, indicating sizable price swings.
Fundamentally, the stock appears cheap on a valuation basis, posting a trailing P/E of 11.7 versus an industry average of 22.2 and a P/B of 1.25, yet the DCF model suggests a fair value around 257 COP, implying the market is pricing in a ~23% premium. The dividend yield is attractive at 4.31% but the payout ratio is nearly 98%, raising questions about sustainability amid a 17% revenue decline and a very high debt‑to‑equity ratio of ~100%.