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ECBK:NASDAQECB Bancorp, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-30 - not real-time

$16.60

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

ECB Bancorp is trading at $16.60, comfortably above its 30‑day support of $15.88 but below the 20‑day SMA of $16.71, indicating a modest upside cushion. The MACD histogram has turned positive and the signal line is bullish, while volume is on an increasing trend, suggesting short‑term buying pressure may be building. However, the RSI sits at 46.5, well within the neutral zone, and the price remains trapped between a resistance of $17.49 and the current level, limiting immediate upside. On the fundamentals side, revenue surged 24.9% year‑over‑year to $31.7 M and the bank posted a robust operating margin of 40% and profit margin of 24.5%, underscoring strong earnings quality. The trailing PE of 17.66 is slightly above the industry average of 16.26, hinting at a modest premium, yet the P/B of 0.85 places the stock below book value, offering a value cushion. A stark contrast emerges from the discounted cash‑flow model, which caps fair value near $4.65, flagging a potential overvaluation concern. The stock’s beta of ~0.33 and a 30‑day volatility of 31.4% portray a low‑beta but highly volatile profile, while the Fear/Greed Index at 68 (Greed) reflects a market environment inclined toward risk‑taking.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support at $15.88
  • Bullish MACD crossover with rising volume
  • Neutral RSI indicating no extreme momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth of 24.9% and high operating margins
  • Price below book value (P/B 0.85) offering upside potential
  • Low beta suggesting limited systematic risk

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • High debt level relative to cash reserves
  • Low ROE (4.6%) and modest profitability
  • Regional bank exposure to regulatory and credit cycles

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth24.90%
Profit Margin24.51%
P/E Ratio17.7
ROE4.57%
ROA0.51%
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow$9.2M
Industry P/E16.3

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI46.5
Support$15.88
Resistance$17.49
MA 20$16.71
MA 50$17.34
MA 200$16.62
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index68.04

Valuation

Fair Value$4.65
GradeFair
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.33
Volatility31.44%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.