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EAT:NYSEBrinker International, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-30 - not real-time

$135.63

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Brinker International trades above its 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages, with the current price sitting just above the identified support level and below resistance. Technical gauges show a bearish MACD crossover, a neutral‑ish RSI in the low‑40s, decreasing volume and elevated 30‑day volatility, while beta hovers around market levels, suggesting price swings are in line with broader market moves. The market price is notably higher than the discounted cash flow fair value, implying the stock is overvalued with a downside potential of roughly 40% relative to intrinsic estimates.
Fundamentally, the company posts solid top‑line growth and modest profitability, with revenue expanding near 7% YoY, steady gross and operating margins, and forward EPS guidance that outpaces current earnings. Analyst sentiment is bullish, reflected in a “buy” consensus and a median price target near $190, while recent corporate actions—including the promotion of a new EVP/CMO—signal continued strategic focus on brand development. However, the lack of dividend payout and a high price‑to‑book multiple temper enthusiasm, especially given the current valuation gap.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and decreasing volume signal limited upside
  • Price near support but still above fair value
  • Elevated short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent revenue and earnings growth
  • Strong analyst buy consensus and upward price targets
  • Valuation gap suggests potential correction

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Current price materially exceeds DCF fair value
  • No dividend and high price‑to‑book multiple
  • Cyclical restaurant exposure may limit upside

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.90%
Profit Margin7.98%
P/E Ratio13.7
ROE177.80%
ROA13.87%
Debt/Equity464.88
P/B Ratio15.6
Op. Cash Flow$737.7M
Free Cash Flow$303.5M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI41.3
Support$129.02
Resistance$153.53
MA 20$141.31
MA 50$150.98
MA 200$148.33
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index67.77

Valuation

Fair Value$82.56
Target Price$189.14
Upside/Downside39.46%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.97
Volatility48.23%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.